A Kadir Jasin
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OFTEN, in this blog and elsewhere, people asked me if the
Parti Islam Se Malaysia (Pan Malaysian Islamic Party aka PAS) could rule the
country?
As I wrote in my “Other Thots” column in the Aug.1 issue of
the Malaysian Business magazine, the temptation is to refer them to the iconic
song “Blowing in the Wind” by Bob Dylan.
Why not? If it gets enough support, it could. Whether it
will do a good or a bad one is another issue altogether. In democracy, you
don’t always choose the best to govern.
But one thing is sure. PAS could not rule the country
alone. It could rule the country only
if it is able to lead the Pakatan Rakyat or any other alliance. But before it
could hope to do that, it must first take over UMNO’s role as the principal
Malay party.
PAS has to win as many seat as Umno and has to have the
financial, organisational and intellectual capabilities matching that of Umno.
Given the country’s demography, political history and the
ongoing trends, a Malay party will continue to lead. This dominance is clear in
the BN, where Umno is the alpha male, but not so in the PR.
In the 2008 general election, PAS came second to PKR among
the three PR parties in terms of popular votes. The PKR won 1,529,265 votes
that translated into 31 Parliamentary seats, PAS 1,140,598 (23 seats) and the
DAP 1,097,752 (28 seats). Umno raked in 2,381,725 votes that translated in 79
seats, the MCA 840,489 (15 seats), the MIC 179,422 (3 seats) and Gerakan 184,
548 (2 seats).
PAS Has To Lead PR
PAS could only hope to rule the country if it leads the PR
the way UMNO has been leading the Alliance/BN since independence.
For now, there’s no dominant party in the PR. The alliance
is an equal partnership among the Malay dominated PAS, the Chinese dominated
DAP and the multi-racial, but Malay-led PKR.
This equal partnership may be attractive to the liberals and
those fighting for equality, but politically it cannot guarantee strength and
cohesiveness. Collective leadership among equals is difficult to manage, more
so in a multi-racial environment like Malaysia.
From the viewpoint of the Malay support, Pas has been
inching closer to Umno, but it cannot hope to be as strong as Umno if it
continues to share the Malay-majority seats, hence Malay votes, with PKR,
another Malay-centric party in the Pakatan.
In the last general election, thanks to the electoral pact
cobbled together by Anwar Ibrahim, and the widespread disgruntlement with the
then Prime Minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Pas won Kedah in addition to
retaining Kelantan.
It won seats in places that it had not dreamt of and gained
supporters in places where Umno ruled supreme like Johor and Malacca.
With the benefit of hindsight, we can say that the hatred
for the so-called Fourth Floor Boys (FFBs) cost Umno a lot of votes. Prime
Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak is undeniably better and more capable than
Abdullah, but whether he too suffers from the FFB-type burden is anybody’s
guess.
If
he is, the opposition can count on another fruitful outing. In today’s
ICT-driven world, perception plays as important a role as reality. Mohd Najib
has to prove to the voters, especially members and supporters of his own party,
Umno that he’s not only the master of the Malay destiny, but also the lord of his
castle, failing which his Achilles heel will buckle.
Those us who are familiar with the song “He Ain't Heavy,
He's My Brother” made popular by Neil Diamond, can more easily figure this one
out.
The Changing Face Of Pas
In recent years, Pas had undergone considerable leadership
and policy changes with the non-ulama now dominating the leadership and Islamic
State objective morphing into welfare state.
But its relationship with its partners, in particular the
DAP, remains touchy due to vast ideological and policy differences. The three
PR parties appear to be moving in tandem at the federal level, especially in
taking on the BN in Parliament, but show considerable differences in the states
that they rule.
A case in point was the recent attempt by the Pas-led Kedah
government to shut down entertainment outlets during this fasting month and the
reaction to the recent “inspection” by the Selangor Islamic Religious Affairs
Department (JAIS) of a dinner gathering by an independent evangelical church,
which were attended by Muslims, and features, among other things, a quiz on
Islam.
Following a strong objection by the DAP, the party’s
national leadership back downed, leaving the Kedah Menteri Besar, Azizan Abdul
Razak red-faced, and many Pas supporters angry.
The church issue is far more
complicated. After days of trying to ride the political wave, Pas, on Aug. 13,
moved to the side of JAIS, urging the department to take immediate action if it
finds proof that Christians were proselytising to Muslims.
The statement by the party’s
non-ulama Deputy President, Mohamad Sabu, came after reports in the mainstream
and alternative media suggest that there were evidence that some independent
churches are engaged in the activity.
Political Posturing In PR
It is this kind of political posturing among PR parties that
could render the alliance ineffectual and cause it to lose the support of the
voters.
The price could be heaviest on PAS. Sooner or later, its
genuine rural-based supporters, who truly believe in the party’s Islamic
ideals, may lose trust in it. They may conclude that the party’s Islamic
agendas are being made a pawn in the game by their leaders.
Without the rural support, PAS runs the risk of losing Kedah
and even its stronghold, Kelantan. Such plans as limiting gambling activities,
the selling of liquor and curbing entertainment, are popular with its rural
supporters, who see them as to the prelude to establishment of a “Daulah
Islamiah” – the Islamic State.
Despite these differences, Pas and DAP appear to be engaging
in more direct talks than ever. This could signal the party’s growing
confidence and the general acknowledgement that the PKR may no longer be in the
position to be an effective middleman.
This development may auger well for the DAP and PAS, but could reduce the influence of PKR and
pose a further challenge to Umno and the BN. If the DAP could accept the
dominant role of PAS – in the manner that the MCA and MIC accepted the
leadership of Umno, future of the PR is much more assured.
But this may not be the case in the immediate future because
Pas is still not as strong as Umno while on the other hand the DAP is stronger
than the BN’s Chinese parties combined. The DAP may not want to play second
fiddle to Pas.
Depending on their ambition and resolve, there’s possibility
that the DAP and Pas may part company and go on their own once again.
The DAP may choose this course of action in order to
entrench its position in Penang while Pas could hope to continue to rule
Kelantan and Kedah on its own.
But a total breakdown of PR will work against both parties
and to the advantage of the BN. The ongoing dialogue between PAS and the DAP
will determine the future of PR beyond Anwar and PKR.
Whereas the recent PAS election had produced a line-up
that’s capable of taking the party forward, the same could not be said of the
PKR polls.
Sufficient Time To Judge The PR
Three years had passed since the 2008 general elections and
the people have sufficient time to judge the performance of the PR, both as
parliamentary opposition as well as the rulers of Kedah, Penang, Selangor and
Kelantan.
The sterling performance of the DAP in the recent Sarawak
state election suggests that the 2008 political tsunami hasn’t lost its
momentum.
The demand by Pas that it should be allowed to contest up to
80 parliamentary seats suggests the party’s growing confidence and its resolve
to be the replacement for the PKR as the dominant PR Malay partner.
The next important question is the ability of Pas to put
forward credible administrative and economic plans. Having muted its “Daulah
Islamiah” agenda and replacing it with “welfare state”, the party has to spell
out its vision and plans for such an entity.
It’s not sufficient to dabble in ambiguity by pointing out
that such a state existed during the time of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon
him) and the early Caliphates
There is no denying that some Pas leaders were educated in
economics and liberal subjects, and had the experience in the administrative,
academic and managerial fields. But running a country as diverse as Malaysia
needs more than cursory knowledge and experience.
Judging from the
articles and papers on the economy and economic matters that appear regularly
in the party’s official organ, Harakah, I get the impression that PAS is aware
of the need for a comprehensive and practical economic policies and plans.
The real challenge for Pas, should it succeed in taking over
from Umno, is to remodel the civil service to fit its mould. Kelantan and Kedah
are unique in the sense that their civil services are state-based. So, Pas had
not faced a major challenge when it won the two states.
But the situation is trickier for the PKR in Selangor and
the DAP in Penang where the civil service is controlled from the centre. Still,
the civil service is supposed to be apolitical and loyal to the government of
the day.
But a pliant civil service alone will not guarantee the
successful running of the country. It needs a government that is sufficiently
well informed and efficient. Say whatever we like about the BN, the fact
remains that it has managed the country fairly well.
In a rapidly globalising world, Economic planning and
management are becoming more complex, and this is point that the political
parties and the voters must think very carefully before they take a plunge.
But say that only one party or a particular group of people
can run the country is inaccurate. Any party that can successfully convince the
majority of the voters can rule the country.
Whether it will
do better or worse than its predecessor is the risk that the voters must be
willing to take. That’s what democracy is all about. It promises the freedom of
choice, but not the quality of people to choose from.