Hulu Selangor: Seat Allocation Quota Could Jeopardise BN Chances

A Kadir Jasin

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[UPDATE, April7] -- THE MINORITY Barisan Nasional party, the Malaysian Indian Congress MIC) of S Samy Vellu has been nominated to represent the federal ruling coalition in the Hulu Selangor Parliamentary by-election, the BN Chairman Mohd Najib Abdul Razak announced today.

The MIC lost the Malay majority seat to the opposition PKR in the 2008 general elections. Umno won two of the three state seats in the constituency and MCA one.

[Original Posting]

BY MOST reckoning, despite the much-touted recovery of Umno and the strengthening of the Chinese support for Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, neither a Malay nor a Chinese candidate is expected to be selected to represent the grand old coalition in the upcoming Hulu Selangor parliamentary by-election.

All indications point to the seat being given once again to the smallest and weakest of BN’s federal party, the Malaysian Indian Congress, which, incidentally, narrowly lost the seat to the opposition PKR in the 2008 general elections.

This is the BN’s dilemma, which could cost the party the seat once again. Not only the MIC is the smallest of the original BN parties in the Peninsula, it also has the least number of followers in Hulu Selangor.

The constituency is dominated by the Malays, who make up nearly 54 per cent of over 63,000 registered electors followed by the Chinese (26.7 per cent) and the Indians (19 per cent).

The speculation is the vanquished BN general elections candidate, G. Palanivel, the MIC’s new deputy president, is the likely choice.

A nice bloke but his close ties with party president S. Samy Vellu, another spectacular MIC loser in the 2008 general elections, is seen as a liability.

Putting an Indian candidate in a Malay majority area with large Chinese community, where the Pakatan Rakyat, via its affiliate Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), will be nominating a Malay candidate, will only weaken the BN’s chances of taking back the seat.

The seat fell vacant due to the death of the PKR’s member, Zainal Abidin Ahmad on March 26. In the 2008 general elections, Zainal Abidin defeated Palanivel by a majority of 198. He polled 23,177 against Palanivel’s 22,979.

Neither Umno nor the BN will dare to acknowledge that the BN lost the seat because of the protest by the Malay voters against the Abdullah Ahmad Badawi-led Umno and their displeasure with the Indians generally.

The huge street protest by the illegal Hindu Rights Action Front (Hindraf) claiming mistreatment and the manner the MIC reacted to it angered the Malays. The majority of MIC candidates, including Samy Vellu, were thrown out as a result.

The disaffected Malays may have gone back to supporting Umno under Mohd Najib. At least that’s what the party has been saying. But would they vote the BN in Hulu Selangor if the coalition is represented by the MIC?

The BN lost the seat in 2008 largely because of the protest by Umno supporters. They disliked (benci) Abdullah’s Administration and were offended by the Indian protest in late 2007.

The Hulu Selangor election results spoke volumes. The turnout was low – only 75.24 per cent – and the rejected votes and unreturned ballot papers were high – 1,689 – indicating a strong element of protest.

I don’t think the feeling of Umno members and supporters towards the MIC has changed for the better. They remain unconvinced of the MIC’s strength since its leadership remains largely unchanged. Samy Vellu still rules while Umno and the MCA had undergone leadership changes.

Furthermore, the loyalty of Indian voters remains fractured with so many Indian parties and political NGO jostling for their support.

The results of the 2008 general elections clearly showed that the bulk of Indian voters sided with the PR via PKR and the DAP where Indians are represented.

Then there are minor Indian-dominated parties – aligned and unaligned to the BN – like People’s Progressive Party (PPP), the Indian Progressive Front, the Malaysian Indian United Party, the Malaysia Makkal Sakti Party, the Malaysian Indian Democratic Action Front (Mindraf), the Malaysian Indian Muslim Congress and the Punjabi Party of Malaysia.

So, while putting up an MIC candidate may be in line with the BN spirit and enhances the Prime Minister’s stature among the Indians, it could prove to be an uphill battle to convince the majority Malay and the significant Chinese voters to throw their lot behind an Indian candidate who may not be able to even mobilise the full support of his own minority community.

As such, if the PR, via the PKR, retains the seat, it’s not because they are strong but because the BN is yet to fully recover and the quota system it uses to allocate seats among component parties in order to help the minority parties is proving to be a liability.

The PR, especially the PKR, have their fair share of problems. The PKR’s image has been badly tainted by the recent resignations of four of its 31 Members of Parliament. So we may see the repeat of the costly Malay protest against the BN for the wrong choice of candidate.