Khairy, Justo dan Pampasan Berjuta Ringgit

A Kadir Jasin

SAYA sokong pandangan Ketua Pemuda Umno (KPU) Khairy Jamaluddin (KJ) agar kita menjadikan penangkapan bekas eksekutif kanan PetroSaudi International (PSI), Xavier Andre Justo (XAJ), di Thailand sebagai satu lagi kaedah mencari kebenaran mengenai 1Malaysia Development Behad (1MDB).

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KJ yang juga Menteri Belia dan Sukan dilaporkan berkata, penangkapan XAJ boleh membantu memperbetulkan rekod mengenai dakwaan terhadap 1MDB. (Baca di sini).

PSI adalah rakan kongsi 1MDB yang paling kontroversial, khususnya kerana membabitkan ahli perniagaan misteri, Jho Low. Anak tauke Cina Pulau Pinang ini dipercayai umum sebagai dalang di belakang urus-niaga luar biasa 1MDB dan ketirisan sumber kewangannya.

Jho Low Hidup Mewah di Luar Negara

Bagaimanapun, saya rasa adalah terlalu awal untuk bersetuju dengan KPU bahawa maklumat yang dibocorkan oleh XAJ itu adalah maklumat putar-belit (distorted information).

KPU itu kata, XAJ guna fakta yang diputar-belit untuk memeras ugut majikannya.

Akhbar Thai, Bangkok Post memetik polis Thai sebagai berkata, XAJ yang berusia 49 tahun dibayar bersamaan 140 juta baht (kira-kira RM15.51 juta) untuk meninggalkan PSI setelah didapati  “bertindak bertentangan dengan undang-undang dan peraturan”.

Dia juga didakwa menuntut 90 juta baht (kira-kira RM9.98 juta) lagi daripada PSI untuk tidak membocorkan maklumat seterusnya kepada syarikat-syarikat yang bersaing dengan PSI.

Buat Salah Dapat Pampasan?

Logiknya, mana-mana kakitangan yang “bertindak bertentangan dengan undang-undang dan peraturan” disingkir tanpa pampasan dan, kalau ada unsur jenayah, dilaporkan kepada polis.

Tapi XAJ yang dituduh “bertindak bertentangan dengan undang-undang dan peraturan” syarikat dibagi pampasan  RM15.51 juta.

Justo (duduk) dalam tahanan Polis Thai

Tak tahulah pula kalau itu amalan PSI atau syarikat pak Arab di mana kakitangan yang “bertindak bertentangan dengan undang-undang dan peraturan” dibagi pampasan lumayan.

Melainkan XAJ ni sangat pandai bila dia buat kontrak perjawatan dengan PSI dia letakkan syarat dibayar pampasan kalau dia disuruh berhenti.

[Khabarnya eksekutif kanan 1MDB dan anak-anak syarikatnya pun ada buat perjanjian seumpama itu yang menjanjikan mereka bonus dan pampasan lain. Tak tahulah kalau gaji RM2 juta setahun kecil, tapi itulah khabarnya gaji sesetengah eksekutif kumpulan 1MDB.]

Atau si XAJ ini dia dibayar RM15.51 juta supaya “tutup mulut”.

Kalau dia bukan penipu dan pemeras ugut kelas dunia dan dia tidak mahu meringkuk di dalam penjara, dia tentu akan beritahu polis Thai dan mahkamah Thai (sekiranya didakwa) “kisah sebenar”.

Jadi saya tidak hairan kalau penangkapan XAJ di rumahnya di Koh Samui Isnin lalu atas dakwaan membocorkan rahsia kepada laman web Sarawak Report (SR) mendebarkan jantung pihak-pihak yang berkaitan dengan 1MDB.

Kepada yang kurang maklum, SR adalah antara laman web peniup wisel (whistleblower) terunggul mengenai 1MDB. Ia sudah pun menulis surat kepada Kementerian Luar Switzerland mengenai pembabitan XAJ kerana beliau adalah warganegara Switzerland.

Jadi negara kita semakin hari semakian “terkenal” seantero dunia kerana 1MDB, FGV dan, yang terbaru, Majlis AMANAH Rakyat (Mara) kerana disyaki "merasuah" dalam urusan jual-beli harta di Australia.

Wallahuaklam.

Bank Negara Wades In But Truth May Never Prevail

A Kadir Jasin

IN the June 9 posting entitled N2H: Arul Kanda Nor Dr Mahathir Who Spooked PM, in part, I wrote: “The Negara Governor, Zeti Akhtar Aziz, is in danger of losing public confidence and respect for her extended silence on the 1MDB issue and her penchant for hiding behind banking secrecy and confidentiality.”

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I contended that this is because Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) had been openly dragged into the controversy by no less than the Prime Minster, Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, himself.

He had said openly cash 1MDB was bringing back from Cayman Islands could not be remitted directly to Malaysia due to BNM”s restrictions and had to be deposited in Singapore.

The cash, amounting to the US$1.103 billion (RM3.985 billion), had since metamorphosed into “asset certificates” and more recently, according to Finance Minister II, Ahmad Husni Hazadlah, had become “units”.

In an interview with TV3 on April 10, the Prime Minister said: “Time will determine but at a certain time, the money will be brought back to Malaysia.”

On May 26, Zeti confirmed that BNM Negara had received a report from its Singapore counterpart - Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) - on a complaint lodged by BSI about 1MDB’s account. BSI is the Swiss private bank where 1MDB deposited the Cayman Islands' proceeds.

Only after more than a week of receiving the MAS report that BNM, on June 3, announced that it has commenced a formal enquiry to examine if there are any contravention of financial rules and regulations with respect to matters surrounding 1MDB. It does not help to raise our confidence when BNM appears to be playing the games of catching up.

In the meantime, confidence in economy is waning despite assurances that our economic fundamentals are strong. Whether BNM admits it or not, the contagion effects of 1MDB are becoming more apparent.

Given the secrecy and confidentiality claims, we don’t know much about what BNM has been doing in the interim. Has it entered the currency market to prop up the ringgit? Maybe it has because the exchange rates of the local currency has stabilised after falling to a nine-year low against the dollar on June 8 and its reserves has fallen.

Zeti had indirectly alluded to the contagion effects of 1MDB when she BNM would not allow any single entity to undermine the country’s financial system.

Bank Negara Finally Admits

On June 18, in yet another admission that the contagion effects of 1MDB and the political development are becoming worse, the Central Bank did the unthinkable – it waded into the murky world of politics.

Resolve Domestic Issues, say Bank Negara

While saying that BNM would not be drawn into politics, it issued a statement urging “the country to resolve domestic issues that have affected the currency.”

It said it would not be drawn into any political agenda and would remain focused on maintaining monetary and financial stability.

So, after months of expounding the country’s strong economic fundamentals and blaming external factors for the weakness of the ringgit, the Central Bank finally acknowledged that “domestic issues” are equally to be blamed.

The national news agency, Bernama had described the BNM statement as attempt to “depoliticise the debate over the weakening ringgit.”

The Central Bank was responding to what it called “the recent inaccurate and misleading media reports” on the central bank and the ringgit’s volatility.

It statement came a day after Deputy Finance Minister Ahmad Maslan had said that Bank Negara’s information indicated Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s criticism against Mohd Najib was one of the reasons for the weakness of the ringgit.

The comments was made in parliament and reported in local media. Ahmad Maslan, who became the butt of many Internet jokes for his outrageous statements on the economy in support of the Prime Minister – the latest being his GST-free fried rice - had emerged as Mohd Najib’s poster boy.

Ahmad Maslan (left) is Mohd Najib's poster boy

Ahmad Maslan was catapulted to that position following the growing reluctance of the more senior members of the Cabinet to come to the Prime Minister’s defense.
Instead “the roadside sources” said he faced considerable opposition from member of the Umno Supreme Council on 1MDB. The sources said the disagreement was so serious that there were the banging of the tables and raised voices at the sitting of the Council.

Despite Mohd Najib telling the press that the Council supported him, sources said some members told him point blank that 1MDB could kill Umno.

[Roadside sources was a term used by Mohd Najib’s spokesman, Encik Rizal Mansor (no relation to Rosmah Mansor the PM’s consort), to described sources of information of the independent bloggers.]

Cooking Up The Book

The process of dressing up 1MDB’s book via creative accounting is in full swing. We hear such jargons as enterprise value, prudence and propriety being used to trap the uninitiated.

The whole idea is to give the impression that everything is OK and above board.

But the people involved, including external auditors, must be reminded of recent events in the US, when accountants and auditors cooked up the books of such giants as Enron, Worldcom, Tyco, Freddie Mac and American Insurance Group. The frauds were almost all accounting-related.

As for the investigations into possible criminal deeds, except one by the Public Account Committee (PAC) of the Parliament, the rest could very well be getting nowhere.

That is to be expected. For as long as Mohd Najib remains the Prime Minister, the investigators would have to abide by the protocol. Be it the police, the MACC or the Auditor General, their boss is the PM. We cannot expect them to go against their boss.

So the public should not place too much hope that the guilty parties would be exposed and punished. Maybe one or two will be made scapegoats and be given a light slap on the wrist and removed from the board and management. 

The truth may not prevail instead the crusaders will be burnt at the stake.

Business as Usual

In the meantime Mohd Najib continues to do what he does best – gives handouts. A few days after chairing the pre-budget dialogue and telling the people to “remain vigilant in the face of economic uncertainties” he announced a special Raya Bonus for the civil servants.

Mohd Najib believes “money is king” and favours could be bought.

He acknowledged that household debt remained high - at 87.6% of gross domestic product - while commodity prices, particularly crude oil, liquefied natural gas and palm oil, were anticipated to remain soft.

Yet he continues to play Santa Clause to prop up his popularity.

He admitted that the GST is dampening private consumption, which he said saw some moderation due to the one-off inflationary pressures of the new tax.

May inflation rose to 2.1 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) but analysts expect the overall inflation rate to slow to 2.3 per cent for the whole year due to lower consumption.

In the meantime businesses are suffering, corporate results are dismal and foreign investors are leaving in droves. We are suffering a massive confidence deficit.

According to MIDF Research head, Zulkifli Hamzah, as of the middle of thin month, foreign investors had been net sellers on Bursa Malaysia for seven consecutive weeks. In his weekly fund flow report dated June 15, Zulkifli said for the third week running, the amount offloaded by foreign funds was more than RM850 million a week. That’s a whopping RM2.55 billion.

So where is Mohd Najib as Finance Minister going to get the additional revenue to pay the civil servants and to meet his lavish off-budget expenditures?

Already his Idris Jala-inspired transformational programmes have seen RM25 billion of EPF money – the life savings of private sector workers – had been channelled to Pembinaan PFI.

Like 1MDB, Pembinaan PFI belongs to Finance Ministry and is also heavily indebted. It is one those things that Mohd Najib called Private Financing Initiative (PFI).

What is so private when the company belongs to Finance Ministry and the money comes from EPF?

This could be another time bomb and the deceit continues. Even Tabung Haji had to lie about the so-called buyers lining up to buy its 1MDB land. Its sales deadline had long past and no transaction in sight. Some BN members of Parliament had tried to come to its rescue by saying it should keep the land. But the sale order was made by Mohd Najib himself!

So, like a clumsy overfed kitten, Mohd Najib is spinning yarn around himself, and in the process is causing us to trip. This cannot be good. But being a Bugis Warrior Mohd Najib would rather sink in the stormy sea than taking the ship back to harbour. The Malay saying “sesat di hujung jalan kembali ke pangkal jalan” does not apply to a blueblood Bugis Warrior.

Wallahuaklam.

Nasib Melayu-Islam Sekiranya BN Tewas

A Kadir Jasin

BANYAK orang bertanya saya: Apa akan terjadi kepada Malaysia, orang Melayu dan agama Islam jika Barisan Nasional (BN) kalah?

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Ini cerita panjang dan soalan ini timbul sejak pilihan raya umum 2008 lagi, apabila BN di bawah pimpinan Abdullah Ahmad Badawi hilang majoriti dua pertiga di Dewan Rakyat.

Keadaan menjadi lebih buruk bagi BN, apabila di bawah pimpinan Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, pencapaiannya lebih teruk dalam PRU 2013.

Tetapi sebelum saya cuba membaca bola kristal atau air di dalam mangkuk ala Nujum Pak Belalang untuk mencari jawapan kepada soalan itu, izinkan saya membuat kenyataan berikut:-

1. Kemungkinan BN kalah pada pilihan raya umum (PRU) akan datang tetap ada walaupun Pakatan Rakyat (PR) sudah terkubur akibat ketidakserasian DAP-PAS.

2. Kalau PR kini hanya wujud dalam bentuk prinsip, BN hampir-hampir tidak relevan lagi di bawah pentadbiran Mohd Najib Abdul Razak. Yang wujud dan diutamakan oleh Mohd Najib hanyalah Umno dan, buat sementara waktu ini, parti-parti BN Sarawak.

3. Parti-parti BN Sarawak relevan kepada Mohd Najib kerana pilihan raya dewan undangan negeri Sarawak perlu diadakan tahun ini atau hadapan dan beliau sangat-sangat memerlukan kemenangan di negeri itu.

4. Parti-parti BN pusat hampir-hampir tidak dipedulikan atau dibawa berunding dalam perjuangan hidup-mati beliau. Mohd Najib hanya mengadakan perhimpunan solidariti (perpaduan) dengan Umno – bukan sekali, tetapi berulang kali.

Mohd Najib gembira dijulang Pemuda Umno

 5. Ini adalah manifestasi dendam kesumat dan Mohd Najib terhadap parti-parti bukan Bumiputera BN, khususnya MCA dan Gerakan, kerana gagal menyekat tsunami Cina pada PRU 2013.

6. Selepas PRU 2013, status MCA, Gerakan dan MIC setaraf dengan PPP sekadar membanyakkan bilangan. Manifestasi ketidakpedulian Mohd Najib itu diserlahkan oleh kemelaratan krisis MIC. Ini cerita guru “ponen”. Bila guru macan itu jaga kelas, budak-budak nakal belakang bilik darjah bermaharajalela.

7. Mohd Najib meletakkan seratus peratus kelangsungan (survival) politik beliau dan BN kepada Umno. Beliau mengharapkan Umno menyokong beliau dan orang Melayu menyokong Umno.

8. Mohd Najib sangat yakin orang Melayu-Bumiputera serta orang miskin luar bandar boleh disogok untuk terus menyokong beliau. Yang terbaru, walaupun kewangan negara dalam keadaan genting dengan hutang bertimbun, Mohd Najib mengisytiharkan bonus raya untuk sejuta lebih kakitangan awam.

9. Beliau yakin mata dan telinga orang Melayu-Bumiputera serta orang miskin luar bandar boleh ditutup dengan BR1M agar tidak menghiraukan isu-isu genting seperti 1MDB, Felda/FGV dan PFI serta ekonomi yang menurun, harga barang dan perkhidmatan yang semakin mahal akibat pelaksanaan GST dan banyak lagi isu yang menekan. [Anggaran terbaru Bank Dunia mengatakan ekonomi Malaysia akan berkembang 4.5 peratus saja tahun ini berbanding enam peratus tahun lalu.]

PM tenggelam dalam lautan manusia di Sabah

10. Harapan pembangkang memenuhi aspirasi pengundi dan rakyat jelata pudar berikutan penyingkiran golongan profesional (umarak) daripada kepemimpinan PAS dalam pemilihan 4 Jun lalu dan perpecahan PR ...Jun lepas.

11. PAS kini dikuasai oleh golongan agama (agamawan) akan menguncup menjadi parti dakwah/hudud tanpa kepakaran untuk berdakwah kepada khalayak pelbagai kaum dan agama.

12. Besar kemungkinan agamawan yang kini menerajui PAS lebih mudah dipujuk dan digula-gulakan untuk menyertai BN melalui gagasan perpaduan dengan Umno.

13. Akhir sekali, kita mungkin mengalami nasib yang serupa dengan Togo. Kajian mengenai kegembiraan tajaan Pertubuhan Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu 2015 mendapati rakyat Togo adalah yang paling tidak gembira di dunia. Tetapi tidak lama selepas laporan itu terbit, Presidennya, Faure Gnassingbe menang penggal ketiga dengan mendapat 59 peratus undi. Dinasti Gnassingbe memerintah Togo sejak tahun 1967 dan Togo adalah negara ke-26 termiskin di dunia. Natijahnya demokrasi tidak semestinya menghasilkan kepemimpinan dan pemerintahan unggul.

Togo: Rakyat tak gembira, Presiden menang juga

Kalau Ditakdirkan BN Kalah

Dengan takdir pembangkang menang (bukan sangat kerana mereka kuat) tetapi kerana pengundi dan raakyat jelata menyampah dengan BN, analisis saya adalah seperti berikut:- 

1. Setelah menyaksikan apa yang berlaku di Selangor (negeri pemastautin saya) dan Pulau Pinang yang diperintah oleh pakatan pembangkang sejak 2008, tidak ada perubahan besar akan berlaku kepada orang Melayu dan agama Islam.

2. Kita telah melihat kedaifan orang Melayu Kelantan di bawah pemerintahan PAS sejak awal Merdeka. Setelah PAS menyertai pakatan pembangkang pun nasib orang Melayu Kelantan sama saja – mundur dan miskin.

3. Orang Melayu dan kaum-kaum Bumiputera lain akan terus menikmati hak istimewa yang termaktub dalam Perlembagaan dan dilindungi oleh institusi raja berperlembagaan.

4. Orang Melayu dan kaum Bumiputera lain akan terus “digula-gulakan” seperti yang dilakukan oleh BN selama ini dan sudah pun ditiru oleh pakatan pembangkang di Selangor dan Pulau Pinang demi mendapatkan undi majoriti mereka. Yang mungkin berbeza hanya kaedahnya saja.

5. Parti atau pakatan mana pun yang memerintah memerlukan sokongan Bumiputera kerana mereka bukan saja majoriti, tetapi bilangan mereka lebih pantas berkembang berbanding Cina dan India.

6. Parti atau pakatan mana pun yang memerintah memerlukan sokongan orang Melayu-Bumiputera kerana mereka menguasai pentadbiran awam, polis dan tentera.  Kakitangan awam, polis dan tentera yang didominasi oleh orang Melayu-Bumiputera mudah dilembutkan hatinya melalui kenaikan gaji biarpun tidak banyak mana.

7. Orang Melayu-Bumiputera miskin mudah diambil hatinya dan ditambat taat setianya dengan menaikkan kadar subsidi pendapatan ala Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M).

8. Pakatan pembangkang akan menuai hasil yang lumayan dengan mengatakan bahawa kenaikan subsidi dan gaji adalah hasil penghapusan pemborosan, gaya hidup mewah, salah guna kuasa dan rasuah zaman BN.

9. Sesiapa pun yang menggantikan BN akan menjadi lebih popular dan diyakini jika berani mengambil tindakan yang lebih tegas seperti menyiasat, mendakwa dan menghukum pemimpin BN dan tali barut mereka atas kesalahan jenayah.

10. Penambahan subsidi pendapatan kepada orang Melayu-Bumiputera akan juga menguntungkan orang miskin daripada semua bangsa dan kaum kerana mereka juga akan mendapat layanan yang serupa.

11. Hal-hal berkaitan agama Islam dan adat resam orang Melayu tidak akan dan tidak boleh disentuh sesuka hati kerana ia berada bawah bidang kuasa Raja-raja Melayu. Pengalaman kerajaan pembangkang di Selangor dan Perak cukup untuk meyakinkan mereka bahawa “kuasa” Raja-raja Melayu terlalu sensitif untuk diapa-apakan. Hanya pendirian Raja-raja Melayu sahaja yang boleh menjejaskan Islam dan adat resam Melayu.

12. Apabila orang Melayu-Bumiputera sudah diambil hatinya melalui penambahan subsidi pendapatan, kenaikan gaji dan pembaikan syarat perkhidmatan, kerajaan baru bolehlah mengisi tuntutan orang Cina dan India dengan lebih mudah.

13. Orang Cina dan India, khususnya kelas perniagaan dan ikhtisas (profesional), lebih tinggi tuntutannya dan mereka inilah yang akan mempengaruhi dasar dan pendekatan pengganti BN dalam bidang ekonomi dan perniagaan.

14. Mereka pasti menuntut hak dan peranan yang lebih luas dalam penentuan dasar-dasar negara, khususnya yang berkaitan ekonomi, pendidikan dan guna tenaga.

15. Mereka pasti menuntut penyertaan yang lebih luas dalam syarikat berkaitan kerajaan (GLC) dan syarikat pelaburan berkaitan kerajaan (GLIC) yang kini didominasi oleh Bumiputera.

16. Dalam sfera inilah kuasa dan pengaruh Bumiputera paling tercabar. PR pastinya tidak akan memberi keutamaan kepada usahawan Bumiputera yang dilihat sebagai proksi atau tali barut parti-parti BN dan akan menjadikan kegagalan korporat (corporate failure) GLC dan GLIC sebagai alasan meminggirkan eksekutif Bumiputera.

17. Pembatalan dan perundingan semula kontrak, konsesi dan pinjaman mudah akan menjadi amalan seperti yang sudah dilihat berlaku kepada perjanjian air dan konsesi lebuh raya bertol di Selangor.

18. Tanda tanya besar sekarang hanyalah sama ada pakatan pembangkang boleh dipulihkan tanpa PAS dan kembali kuat sebelum PRU akan datang.

19. PAS boleh memilih untuk menjadi parti dakwah yang berharapan menang hanya di negeri-negeri miskin seperti Kelantan atau terus berkongsi dengan DAP dan PKR untuk memerintah negara.

20. Pakatan pembangkang masih boleh berkuasa jika mendapat sokongan parti-parti suku kaum di Sarawak dan Sabah. Parti-parti suku kaum ini umumnya bebas daripada pengaruh BN pusat dan mungkin terbuka kepada kerjasama dengan pakatan pembangkang jika ditawarkan “pakej autonomi” yang lebih baik daripada yang ada sekarang.

Nasib Melayu Pi Mai Tang Tu

Kesimpulannya, nasib orang Melayu-Bumiputera dan orang Islam mungkin tidak lebih baik daripada di bawah BN sekiranya pakatan pembangkang memerintah Malaysia.

Tetapi nasib mereka juga tidak akan menjadi lebih buruk di bawah pakatan pembangkang. Tetapi orang Melayu-Bumiputera yang pandai memainkan peranan dan tahu mengambil kesempatan mungkin mendapat faedah daripada kerajaan baru.

Perkhidmatan awam, polis dan tentera kekuatan Melayu-Bumiputera

Kalau orang Cina menggunakan kekuatan ekonomi dan orang India menggunakan kekuatan profesional untuk mempengaruhi kerajaan, orang Melayu-Bumiputera boleh menggunakan bilangan mereka yang ramai dalam perkhidmatan awam, polis dan tentera sebagai pengimbang (leverage).

Bagi rakyat Malaysia amnya, keadaan mungkin menjadi lebih baik jika politik dan ekonomi negara diuruskan dengan lebih berhemah, pembaziran dan pemborosan wang negara diberhentikan dan rasuah serta salah guna kuasa disekat.

Pakatan pembangkang tidak boleh menganaktirikan orang Melayu-Bumiputera dan orang Islam jika mereka mahu mentadbir secara adil sambil mengekalkan keamanan negara untuk jangka masa panjang.

Wallahuaklam.

Pakatan Rakyat Is “Dead” Says DAP

A Kadir Jasin

THE national opposition coalition is in disarray following the DAP’s declaration today that “Pakatan Rakyat ceases to exist”.

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In a statement, DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng said: “The DAP central executive committee accepts the PAS Muktamar’s motion severing ties with DAP and effectively, that Pakatan Rakyat ceases to exist.”

Lim Guan Eng: Pakatan Rakyat is dead

He blamed PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang for the death of the coalition, saying that  Abdul Hadi’s recent actions as well as the party’s general assembly’s decision to sever ties with DAP meant that PR’s Common Policy Framework (CPF) has broken down.

The Penang Chief Minister and Bagan Member of Parliament said the DAP would work with and all other forces that aspire to see an end to UMNO/Barisan Nasional’s rule and  to reshape and realign Malaysian politics with the aim of capturing Putrajaya for the people.

Abdul Hadi is blamed for death of PR

Meanwhile the PKR political bureau would meet tonight to discuss its position and future of the opposition cooperation following DAP’s declaration, its secretary-general Rafizi Ramli told Malay Mail Online.

The DAP’s stance makes the position of the PKR as a go-between awkward and difficult, especially in the absence of its de facto leader, Anwar Ibrahim.

The future of the coalition depends very much on the ability of the Parliamentary Opposition Leader, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, to negotiate a truce between the DAP and PAS.  

Although the opposition state governments of Selangor and Penang are not in eminent danger of collapsing, the situation Selangor is complicated and possibly dicey.

Can Dr Wan Azizah stop the break-up?

The three coalition parties – the PKR, the DAP and PAS – are almost equal in assembly membership. The PKR has 14 while the DAP and PAS have 15 each. The Barisan Nasional occupies the remaining 12.

The PKR leads the state by providing the Menteri Besar (Mohd Azmin Ali). If either PAS or DAP pulls out, the remaining two parties will have 28 seat in the 56-member house to form a minority government.

The BN may be tempted to test its luck to provoking further rift between the DAP and PAS with the hope of seizing power. The most possible ally in any attempt by Umno is the Ulama-led PAS. But that will give them only 27 seats, unless they could buy the loyalty of at least two PKR assemblymen.

On the other hand, the PKR, the DAP and PAS may still stay together as strange bedfellow sans the PR umbrella, back to what they were before the 2008 general election. The PR came into being as formal coalition only following the big win in 2008.

In Penang where the DAP leads, the government is secure as PAS has only one seat. The DAP has 19 and PKR 10 in the 40-seat assembly.

FGV Bayar Mahal Kepada Sondakh

A Kadir Jasin

MUTAKHIR, 16 Jun – Saham FGV semalam merudum ke paras paling rendah sejak diniagakan di Bursa Malaysia pada tahun 2012 apabila pelabur menolak pembeliannya ke atas Eagle High Plantations (EHP), Indonesia. Ia jatuh 21 sen kepada RM1.65 sesaham.

Firma penyelidikan pasaran, CIMB Equities Research, memberi penarafan negatif kepada pembelian EHP. Katanya harga yang dibayar oleh FGV terlalu mahal berbanding dengan semua metrik (asas) penilaian.

MUTAKHIR, 15 Jun – Pelabur tidak teruja dengan pembelian Eagle High Plantations (EHP) oleh FGV. Walaupun FGV mendakwa penilaian berdasarkan “enterprise value” (nilai perniagaan) itu berpatutan, tetapi pelabur tidak yakin. Sahamnya jatuh di Bursa Malaysia kepada RM1.68 jam 12.29 tengah hari tadi berbanding RM1.86 apabila digantung 11 Jun.

POSTING ASAL

 

PADA pandangan mata kasar, pembelian 37 peratus saham ladang PT Eagle High Plantation (EHP) di Indonesia oleh Felda Global Ventures Bhd (FGV) amatlah memberangsangkan.

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EHP adalah anak syarikat konglomerat Rajawali iaitu salah sebuah syarikat terbesar di Indonesia. Rajawali dimiliki oleh Peter Sondakh yang disenaraikan oleh majalah Forbes sebagai orang kesembilan terkaya di Indonesia. Beliau bergelaran Tan Sri (kehormat).

Tan Sri Peter Sondakh "Penasihat" Mohd Najib

Urus niaga itu selaras dengan dasar kerajaan menggalakkan pelaburan Malaysia di luar negara dan dengan kedudukan FGV sebagai syarikat multinasional dalam bidang perladangan.

Lagipun bagi pelabur sektor perladangan, harapan memperluaskan ladang di dalam negara sudah tidak ada atau terhad kerana kita tidak lagi membenarkan pembukaan besar-besaran hutan belantara.

Dalam urus niaga itu, FGV membayar AS$680 juta (kira-kira RM2.5 bilion) dalam bentuk tunai dan saham. Pembelian itu turut merangkumi 95 peratus ladang tebu milik Rajawali.

Bagaimanapun, timbul beberapa persoalan yang perlu dianalisis dan difahami mengenai urus niaga itu.

1. Yang menggusarkan ialah harga yang dibayar oleh FGV sangat tinggi berbanding nilai pasaran saham EHP. FGV membayar hampir sekali ganda nilai saham EHP di Bursa Saham Indonesia (ISX). FGV membayar 800 rupiah sesaham sedang harga EHP di pasaran hanya sekitar 400 rupiah.

2. FGV nampak sangat murah hati walaupun ia sendiri berada dalam keadaan kesulitan akibat kelemahan harga minyak sawit, banjir besar Disember-Januari lalu yang menjejaskan pengeluaran ladang-ladangnya serta harga sahamnya yang merudum di Bursa Malaysia.

3. Contohnya, keuntungan tahun 2014 jatuh daripada RM1.56 bilion kepada RM826.4 juta kerana kemarau. Bagi suku pertama tahun ini (Januari-Mac) keuntungannya jatuh 98 peratus kepada hanya RM3.6 juta manakala harga sahamnya di Bursa Malaysia merudum daripada harga IPO RM4.55 pada tahun 2012 kepada kurang daripada RM2 sekarang.

4. Jadi adakah ini masa yang sesuai bagi FGV membuat pembelian dan pada harga yang jauh melebihi harga pasaran?

5. Ini menyebabkan penganalisis membuat andaian bahawa urus niaga itu lebih berupa operasi membantu Rajawali dan Peter Sondakh.

6. Adalah pengetahuan umum di kalangan pemerhati dan penganalisis pasaran yang Rajawali mungkin mengalami tekanan setelah percubaannya mengapungkan syarikat perlombongan emas miliknya tahun lalu gagal akibat kurang sambutan pelabur.

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FGV dan Rajawali Satu Strategi

7. Lojiknya FGV membeli saham-saham EHP dengan harga diskaun kerana sektor perladangan kini dalam suasana lembap. Lagipun, bukan semua tanah milik EHP sudah mengeluarkan hasil. Daripada pegangan seluas 419,006 hektar, baru 147,298 hektar ditanam. Bakinya masih hutan belantara.

8. Memandangkan harga sahamnya sendiri amat rendah maka FGV terpaksa menyerahkan lebih banyak saham kepada penjual EHP. Saham FGV ditutup pada kadar RM1.85 pada 11 Jun.

9. Ada ramalan mengatakan FGV mungkin diambil balik (taken private) oleh Felda dan ditarik keluar daripada Bursa Malaysia kerana penarafan pasaran yang hambar.

10. Sudah menjadi pengetahuan umum di kalangan penggiat korporat dan pemerhati politik bahawa Sondakh sangat akrab dengan Perdana Menteri, Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, dan isterinya, Rosmah Mansor. Sejak 2010 Sondakh dikatakan menjadi "penasihat" Mohd Najib mengenai Indonesia.

11. Keakraban ini dikatakan menjadi pemangkin kepada pelaburan mewah Sondakh dalam projek pembinaan hotel St Regis dan pusat konvensyen antarabangsa Langkawi. Sumber-sumber perbankan mendakwa Sondakh mendapat pembiayaan mudah daripada institusi kewangan milik kerajaan Malaysia.

Peter Sondakh, Mohd Najib dan Rosmah

 12. Macam banyak saham syarikat komoditi, saham EHP juga jatuh di Bursa Indonesia (ISX) sebelum ‘ditolak-naik’ kepada sekitar 400 rupiah. FGV membeli saham-saham tersebut dengan harga 800 Rupiah, sekali gus memberikan keuntungan atas kertas 100 peratus kepada penjual EHP.

13. Pembelian oleh FGV juga bercanggah dengan arahan Kementerian Kewangan bertarikh 26 Disember lalu kepada syarikat berkaitan kerajaan (GLC) dan badan-badan berkanun agar memberhentikan sementara pembelian aset di luar negara bagi mengurangkan pengaliran keluar modal dan membantu menjana ekonomi domestik. Atau Mohd Najib, yang juga Mentor Felda, membuat pengecualian bagi membolehkan urus niaga itu.

Mungkin Sondakh Jelma Dalam 1MDB?

Dua bidang tanah di Tun Razak Exchange (TRX) Jalan Tun Razak sudah dijual terus atau secara usaha sama kepada dua pelabur asing – Lend Lease, Australia dan Mulia Group, Indonesia.

Apakah ada kemungkinan Rajawali atau Sondakh sendiri akan menjadi pembeli seterusnya? Sondakh suka kepada urus niaga berkembar. Misalnya, selepas menjual syarikat telekomunikasinya, Excelcomindo Pratama, kepada Telekom Malaysia pada pertengahan tahun 2000, beliau membeli aset perhotelan Khazanah Nasional Berhad di Kuala Lumpur dan Langkawi.

Penjualan tanah yang diperoleh dengan harga murah dari kerajaan kepada pelabur tempatan dan asing dengan harga tinggi memperkukuhkan pendapat bahawa 1MDB adalah skim cepat kaya.

Kita tidak memerlukan syarikat pelaburan strategik milik kerajaan kalau sekadar untuk beli tanah dan jual tanah macam orang kampung beli tanah dan pecah jadi lot untuk dijual.

Seorang pemaju hartanah Bumiputera yang pernah membeli tanah kerajaan untuk dimajukan berkata, apa yang dibuat oleh 1MDB sekarang tidak lebih daripada membeli tanah kerajaan dengan harga yang murah kemudian menilainya semula dan menjual sebagai lot pada harga yang berganda-ganda tinggi.

Katanya, siapa pun boleh melakukan kegiatan seperti itu tanpa memerlukan modal besar dan kepakaran. Tambahnya lagi, apa yang sedang dilakukan oleh 1MDB tidak lebih daripada perniagaan atas angin atau perniagaan Ali-Baba.

Maklumat mutakhir pasaran berkata, 1MDB sedang berunding dengan beberapa buah syarikat swasta, GLC dan syarikat pelaburan berkaitan kerajaan (GLIC) sama ada untuk membeli atau membangunkan bersama tanah bandar Malaysia di jalan Sungai Besi itu.

Antara syarikat yang disebut sebagai berkemungkinan memajukan tapak Bandar Malaysia ialah Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera dan Malton Berhad yang dimiliki oleh billionaire Desmond Lim Siew Choon.

Laporan media pada tahun 2010 berkata, kerajaan bersetuju konsortium membabitkan 1MDB, LTAT dan Malton Berhad membangunkan Pangkalan TUDM Sungai Besi menjadi Bandar Malaysia.

Sementara itu, sumber-sumber perakaunan pula berkata apa yang sedang dilakukan oleh 1MDB sekarang adalah bagi menjustifikasikan aset, hutang dan tanggungannya supaya selaras dengan kehendak Suruhanjaya Syarikat dan mematuhi piawaian perakaunan negara sambil cuba memberi gambaran bahawa tidak berlaku kesalahan tadbir urus atau pelanggaran undang-undang.

Wallahuaklam.

N2H: Arul Kanda not Dr Mahathir who Spooks the PM

A Kadir Jasin

LATEST, June 12 - Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) has requested for a suspension in the trading of its shares on Bursa Malaysia with effect from 9am today, pending a material announcement, according to Bernama.

FGV was last traded at RM1.86 compared to its 2012 IPO price of RM4.55.

I am made to understand that the “material announcement” could be related to the purchase of plantation assets in Indonesia.

On May 28, Reuters reported that the Rajawali Group, one of Indonesia's biggest conglomerates, planned to divest part of its stake in oil palm plantation company, PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk, to a foreign investor.

Rajawali is controlled by billionaire Peter Sondakh, who is building the high-end St Regis Hotel and international convention centre in Langkawi. Sondakh is a close friend of the Prime Minister.

The PM, his wife and Sondakh at St Regis ground-breaking

In a separate development, the DAP is said to on the verge of announcing withdrawal from the Pakatan Rakyat but will remain in partnership with PKR in Selangor and Penang.

ORIGINAL POST


ALMOST all commentators attributed Mohd Najib Abdul Razak’s no show at the “Nothing2Hide” (N2H) city hall dialogue on June 5 to the presence of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

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They concluded that the Prime Minister feared being grilled by Dr Mahathir or, at the very least, the old fox received a more rousing welcome than himself.

As I have stated many times before, this is not about Mohd Najib vs Dr Mahathir. This is about seeking the truth about 1MDB, including the possibility of criminal act in the running of the company.

The following is my take on the event, which made news worldwide, and on 1MDB as a whole:-

1. The Prime Minister is not a debater. He is more like an orator. He loves to scream and shout, sometimes out of tangent, in front of large obedient audience.

2. Dr Mahathir, on the other hand is a debater and communicator. He has crossed sword with some of the region’s best debaters - the likes of Lee Kuan Yew and Devan Nair in the Malaysia Parliament as far back as 1964.

[These days parliamentary banters have become a rarity because few MPs are not genuine debaters and, in the case of government members, the Speaker regularly rescued them from embarrassing situation.]

3. Mohd Najib would have been clobbered not so much by Dr Mahathir but by members of the audience, reported to be some 1,000 of them. They were not the standard audience that Mohd Najib is used to in rural Pahang, Perlis, Sabah and Sarawak.

4. The real reason for Mohd Najib chickening out is Arul Kanda Kandasamy. His June 3 detailing of the 1MDB assets, liabilities and expenditures has made it impossible for Mohd Najib to wrangle his way out of the quagmire. Arul Kanda’s explanation gave the informed public the real basis to ask Mohd Najib at the dialogue, which he could not possibly answer without further incriminating himself.

Arul Kanda Spooks the PM

5. Take for instance buying ageing Independent Power Producers (IPPs) for RM12 billion and inheriting RM6 billion debts, making the total RM18 billion.

6. It is widely known that all or some of these purchases were over-priced despite the fact that the plants are old and their concessions running out. Only Jimah Power is a recent concession with its franchise ending 2033.

7. Arul Kanda, who became 1MDB’s President and Group Executive Director in January this year, told us that 1MDB inherited RM6 billion debts from the IPP purchase.

8. It is hard to believe that companies owned by two of Malaysia’s savviest tycoons – T. Ananda Krishnan and Lim Kok Thay (the scion of the Genting Empire) – would amassed so much debt when their power concessions were coming to an end.

9. The question is, could the RM6-billion debt had been “deliberate created” at the point of purchase in order to enable “excess” funds to be channeled out for political and other purposes?

10. The answer to this question can be extracted if the Public Account Committee of the Parliament (PAC) were to call people associated with the IPP vendors – the likes of Ananda, his right hand man Augustus Ralph Marshall (Tanjong Enery/Powertek) and Lim Kok Thay (Genting/Kuala Langat Power).

11. We all know that Ananda needs Mohd Najib’s “sovereign protection” in order to avoid from being sent to stand trial in India for alleged corruption.

[The Star newspaper reported on Aug. 30 last year that India’s federal police had filed charges against a former Indian minister, his media mogul brother, and a Malaysian tycoon over alleged corruption to help Malaysia’s Maxis group take control of an Indian mobile phone carrier eight years ago.

South Indian politician Dayanidhi Maran, who was India’s telecommunications minister between 2004 and 2007, his brother billionaire Kalanithi Maran, Malaysia’s second-richest man T. Ananda Krishnan and his aide Augustus Ralph Marshall, are among those named in the charge sheet filed in a New Delhi court, a police spokeswoman said.]

12. Mohd Najib may find it hard to justify selling prime government land cheaply to 1MDB – RM200 million for the 70-acre of Tun Razak Exchange (TRX) land in Jalan Tun Razak and RM400 million for 500-acre Bandar Malaysia i.e. the Sungai Besi RMAF base.

13. But it’s harder for him as Chairman of 1MDB’s advisory board, to justify purchasing 234 acres in Penang for RM1.1 billion just before the 2013 general elections, which according to Penang Chief Minister, Lim Guan Eng, was 95 per cent above valuation two years earlier.

14. Issues pertaining to cost of finance and working capital (RM4.5 billion), foreign exchange cost (RM900 million) and taxation (MR400 million) could be too technical for Mohd Najib to answer.

15. The hottest potatoes of all are 1MDB’s cash investments abroad. It is here that Jho Low features prominently and where the biggest “silap mata” (sleight of hand) could have taken place to enrich certain parties.

16. There are many more issues in Arul Kanda’s revelation that Mohd Najib would not possible answer like those massive investments in Brazen Sky Limited (RM6.1 billion), Aabar Deposit (RM4.2 billion) and 1MDB GIL Fund (RM5.1 billion).

[So the best way out for the self-proclaimed Bugis blueblood was to play AWOL and, as a faint attempt to hide koro syndrome (Readhere), asked the dutiful Inspector-General of Police to declare the civil assembly unsafe.]

The Zeti, Arul Kanda Posers

Many questions have been raised about who Arul Kanda really is and what are his motivations for taking over the hot seat at 1MBD.

People who know him, including those who attended the Royal Military College (RMC) with him, said he was a bright student and an orator. He hailed from a good Ceylonese family from Terengganu. (More here).

Why is he staking his reputation by accepting the 1MDB job puzzles these people. Some ventured to link him to Ananda who is also of Ceylonese descent. What is Arul Kanda’s game plan,  if any, can be determined by what question PAC members ask when he faces them.

Bank Negara Governor, Zeti Akhtar Aziz is in danger of losing public confidence and respect for extended silence on the 1MDB issue and her penchant for hiding behind banking secrecy and confidentiality.

Zeti's reputation is at stake

This is because Bank Negara had been openly dragged into the controversy by no less than Mohd Najib himself, when he said cash 1MDB was bringing back from Cayman Islands could not be remitted directly to Malaysia due to Bank Negara restrictions and had to be deposited in Singapore.

The cash, amounting to the US$1.103 billion (RM3.985 billion), had since metamorphosed into “asset certificates” and more recently, according to Finance Minister II, Ahmad Husni Hazadlah, had become “units”.

On May 26, Zeti confirmed that Bank Negara had received a report from its Singapore counterpart - Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) - on a complaint lodged by BSI about 1MDB’s account. BSI is the Swiss private bank where 1MDB deposited the Cayman Islands' proceeds.

Only after more than a week of receiving the MAS report that Bank Negara, on June 3, announced that it has commenced a formal enquiry to examine if there are any contravention of financial rules and regulations with respect to matters surrounding 1MDB. It does not help to raise our confidence when Bank Negara appears to be playing the game of catching up.

In the meantime the confidence in economy is waning, despite repeated assurance that our economic fundamentals are strong. The contagion effects of 1MDB are becoming more apparent.

On June 8, the ringgit fell to a nine-year low against the US dollar at RM3.772, which analysts blamed on sustained outflow of foreign funds from the equity and debt markets.

Zeti responded by saying that it is temporary and blame the “external environment”. She said emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, continue to be affected by external uncertainties, adding that ringgit is trading at levels that are not reflective of the fundamentals of the Malaysian economy.

It may all sound so clever. But in reality, the effects of the falling ringgit and the lost of confidence in Mohd Najib’s administration are already being felt by the rakyat. Strong economic fundamentals means nothing to them if they are not reflected by the stronger ringgit, net capital inflow, cheaper goods and services, rising income and ample jobs.

On the contrary the ringgit could fall to as low as RM3.90 or even RM4 to a dollar should the US decide to raise interest rates.

Wallahuaklam.