Sunday, March 04, 2007

Ekonomi: Antara Fakta dan Spin Media

A Kadir Jasin

[APOLOGIES, comments may not be moderated for the next 20 hours or longer. Versi yang diperbetulkan. Komen menggunakan pengenalan "anonymous" tidak akan dilayan. Sila gunakan nama sebenar atau nama samaran yang sesuai. Komen yang mengandungi unsur hasutan, fitnah atau kesat tidak akan disiarkan. Terima kasih.]


BERGANTUNG kepada siapa dan daripada sudut mana ekonomi negara dinilai dan dianalisis, perisytiharan pemerintah bahawa “the good times are here again” (hari-hari yang cerah kembali bertandang), mempunyai pelbagai erti dan implikasi.

Antara fakta yang meyakinkan para pembesar negara bahawa hari-hari yang semilang kembali bertandang adalah pemulihan ketara indeks komposit Bursa Malaysia (KLCI) sejak beberapa bulan kebelakangan ini dan perdagangan negara yang melepasi RM1 trilion.

Antara 30 Disember 2005 dan 19 Februari lalu, indeks komposit meningkat 42.1 peratus kepada 1,278.2 mata. Tahun ini sahaja, harga di Bursa Malaysia meningkat 17 peratus menjadikan prestasinya dari aspek harga yang terbaik di Asia bagi dua bulan pertama 2007.

Bagaimanapun, kegembiraan itu tidak kekal lama. Pada hari Selasa 27 Februari harga jatuh dengan teruk selaras dengan pasaran saham utama dunia akibat kebimbangan bahawa pertumbuhan ekonomi global mungkin merosot. Sewaktu rencana ini ditulis (Ahad 4 Mac) kejatuhan harga di Bursa Malaysia masih belum boleh disekat.

Walaupun prestasi Bursa Malaysia semakin cemerlang, namun ia tidaklah sehebat Negeri China yang meningkat 157.9 peratus, Indonesia 56.2 peratus, India 51 peratus tetapi lebih baik daripada Singapura yang naik 40.3 peratus, Hong Kong 38.8 peratus dan Taiwan 19.3 peratus.

Menteri Kewangan Kedua, Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop, dipetik oleh akhbar kewangan The Edge sebagai berkata asas (fundamental) ekonomi Malaysia tetap teguh dan kejatuhan harga di Bursa Malaysia tidak akan mencetuskan krisis kecairan (mata wang).

Pemerintah juga gembira dan yakin saat yang gemilang kini kembali menemui kita berdasarkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang semakin baik. Keluaran dalam negara kasar (KDNK/GDP) dianggarkan berkembang antara 5.5 dan 5.9 peratus tahun lalu dan diramalkan 5.2 peratus tahun ini.

Rizab luar Bank Negara yang tinggi -- pada kadar RM290.4 bilion (pada 31 Disember 2006 lalu) -- dan indeks harga pengguna yang rendah (3.1 peratus) turut merangsang pemerintah membuat ramalan itu.

Manakala perangkaan asas dan petunjuk-petunjuk kasar ekonomi yang dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah menjurus ke arah yang positif, namun kesan sebenar kepada rakyat jelata masih menjadi tanda tanya.

Misalnya, berapa ramaikah rakyat jelata mendapat faedah daripada pemulihan pasaran saham, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan peningkatan rizab negara?

Tidak dapat dinafikan bahawa pemulihan pasaran saham telah mula menampakkan kesan positif kepada pelabur saham, termasuk pelabur saham unit atau unit trust.

Tetapi majoriti pelabur jangka panjang yang membuat pelaburan sebelum krisis ekonomi serantau tahun 1997 masih menanggung kerugian yang besar.

Walaupun indeks komposit bursa meningkat tetapi kenaikan harga masih terhad kepada saham-saham komposit dan saham-saham blue chip. Banyak lagi saham barisan kedua dan ketiga, khasnya yang disenaraikan di Papan Kedua dan Mesdaq, masih berada di bawah paras sebelum krisis atau lebih rendah daripada itu.

Apa yang lebih utama kepada ekonomi adalah pengagihan kekayaan, produktiviti dan kuasa membeli. Kenaikan pasaran saham tidak akan memberi kesan yang menyeluruh kerana hanya sebahagian kecil sahaja rakyat jelata yang melabur. Lagipun majoriti daripada mereka melabur jumlah yang terlalu kecil untuk memberi kesan yang berbaloi.

Begitu juga dengan produktiviti. Walaupun produktiviti kasar meningkat, namun ia tidak menyeluruh. Malah dalam sektor-sektor tertentu seperti hartanah berlaku pembaziran sumber yang ketara.

Banyak unit kediaman, kedai, pejabat dan kilang sama ada tidak laku dijual atau tidak digunakan kerana kurang peluang perniagaan. Kita hanya perlu ke projek hartanah untuk melihat betapa banyaknya ruang perniagaan yang kosong dan mengemis penyewa.

Sebaliknya penarikan balik atau pengurangan subsidi telah mencetuskan kenaikan harga barangan dan perkhidmatan yang sekali gus “memiskinkan” lagi golongan berpendapatan rendah.

Disebabkan itulah perangkaan rasmi mengenai indeks harga pengguna (CPI) yang digunakan untuk mengukur inflasi dan perangkaan guna tenaga terus dicurigai.

Persepsi ini diburukkan lagi oleh perkembangan semasa seperti pembatalan cadangan memperluaskan skim bantuan buku teks atas alasan ia memerlukan perbelanjaan tambahan, laporan berkaitan pengangguran siswazah dan kemuflisan kontraktor Kelas F.

Kesimpulannya, perangkaan yang lebih terperinci, fakta-fakta yang lebih konkrit dan kesan fizikal yang lebih ketara adalah diperlukan sebelum berita gembira ini akan diterima sebagai hakikat dan bukan satu lagi “spin” indah khabar dari berita oleh media massa arus perdana.

Footnote: I am on visit to a rural New Zealand town called Wanganui. It’s a quaint little riverside town --- the biggest passenger plane that lands here is the 19-seater Beech 1990D.

It was here that journalism got dirty for me, literally. The year was 1971 and the place was the office of the now defunct Wanganui Herald. As a journalism intern I was made to wait at the printing press for the first copies of the paper to come out every afternoon.

I was running errant for the paper’s News Editor, the late George Abbott. George was a fine teacher. Thanks to this mundane assignment I fell in love with printer’s ink.

I love the feel, sound and smell of the print shop. While working for the NSTP Group (1976-2000), the print shop was my favourite place away from the newsroom.

26 comments:

chief shook said...

Dear Dato',
It is quite unfortunate that the story (or "spin" as some people might say) was spread on the KLSE's stellar performance before last week. Apparently, these people do not understand the importance of inter market relationships. For as the KLSE was making new highs, the indexes in the USA (Dow,S&P,Russell) were hitting an obvious "resistance" point and was finding it difficult to go higher. Attempts by institutions to create new highs failed. The sub-prime lending woes in the USA was rearing its ugly head. A correction was imminent, since investors were too complacent! (Ever heard of the story where you get out the market once teachers,doctors,engineers start investing? No offense to these group of people...) Meanwhile, hedge funds who were doing carry trades on the yen and swiss franc were also getting nervous (there were a record of yen and swiss franc "shorts", a sign that the market will turn down). So when the carry traders started selling on Monday (one day before Tuesday, Feb 27) the signs of a collapse were already there. China's fall was merely a trigger point to the undercurrent of bears which were ready to unload. Of course, the media will never report all of this forward looking news - only after the steep correction do people now mention carry trades. It is unfortunate that at times of market mayhem, it is the small retail investors who suffer - they are SHEEP BEING SET UP FOR THE SLAUGHTER. That's the bad news. But the good news is that going forward, we should see more volatility in the markets, and with this comes opportunity. It will take some time though, for too many bulls have been burnt.

fudzail said...

Dear Datuk
Your footnote on Wanganui referred.

I am one of NZ grads in 80s and returned 3 years ago for a visit including a trip to Wanganui, not much changed and still love the country. Was invited for a PR.

Now been living and working in Dubai, UAE since 2000, just established a blog www.kerjadubai.blogspot.com to assist those Malaysians who are interested to work in Dubai, esp unemployed grads.

Thank you.

Kodiang said...

Dato'

Bahang kenaikan ekonomi sementara rasanya tidak dirasai oleh golongan-golongan dijalan langgar, cherok tok kun,manggol bongor atau lain-lain tempat terpencil di negara kita.

Satu typo Dato', MESDAQ.

Tkasih Dato'
Wassalam.

Sitamaya said...

Dato',i hv submitted an entry with the same content - but not sure whether the server has recd it.Submitting it again, in case it hasn't.Anyway,the decision to publish/delete is yours.TQ.
-------
Betul tu Dato’. Sudah sampai saatnya kita berterus dengan data. Data yang disiarkan oleh media/laporan adalah data makro atau data agregat yang tidak mencerminkan data mikro sebenar. Data ini tidak mendedahkan beberapa hakikat seperti perbezaan pertumbuhan antara sub-sektor. Ia tidak mendedahkan masalah agihan pendapatan yang berbeza antara sub-sektor, korporat dan jelata, pekan dan desa.Itu belum kita bicarakan isu agihan antara lokasi, etnik dsbnya.
Masalah agihan atau ekuiti telah menjadi teras dan tunjang kepada polisi ekonomi negara.Pertumbuhan kita kecapi, tetapi barah ekuiti masih menular dalam sub-sektor tertentu dan golongan jelata yang terpinggir. Malaysia masih belum dapat mencapai imbangan pertumbuhan dan ekuiti yang dianggap optimum.
Hanya dengan berdepan dengan data/fakta yang sebenar, baru kita tahu runcing tidaknya masalah atau isu yang dihadapi. Membalut data untuk pelbagai motif, tidak akan dapat mengubat penyakit sebenar. Kita ibarat burung unta/ostrich yang menanam kepala dalam tanah, ekor bergelumang dengan kekotoran.
Maka, kita buka era baru dengan keberanian berdepan dengan data dan fakta sebenar.Pasti kita dapat lahirkan pendekatan yang pragmatik berbanding dengan polisi yang berlandaskan data yang telah dipakej – luar indah dalam gundah. Sejarah menunjukkan penggubalan polisi keatas data yang diherotkan, akan hanya menyebabkan peruntukan sumber yang tidak cekap.

Dato’, pasal subsidi buku, tidak terkira sokongan saya kepada hujah Dato’. Jika ada satu subsidi yang membina modal insan, subsidi itu adalah subsidi buku. Faedahnya merentasi kanak-kanak, remaja, orang awam, pelajar, penyelidik malahan ahli politik sendiri. Kurangkan cukai import keatas buku, beri subsidi lumayan kepada buku teks – sekolah dan IPT, insentif fiskal kepada penerbit ...Pasti masyarakat berilmu atau k-society akan mucul sepintas mata..
Salam Dato’....

Rasidin said...

Dato,

I was in wanganui as an art student in the early 90's. Spent some of the best years of my life there.

I've travelled the world, somehow rasa fish& chips dengan kebab kat wanganui is the best I've tasted.
I remember how expensive it was to call home, kena budget..cakap tak boleh lebih 10 minit.

How things have changed.

I now skype home every day. Ppl at home don't feel that I'm halfway across the world...

I am now living in UK. Work in London and lives in Dorset.

Here's something I work on on spare time
www.serigala-london.net/m50/home.php

Salam,
Din

idris said...

Datuk,

Sekali lagi suatu analisa yang tepat dari Datuk.

Saya teringat akan katun Lat (sekarang Datuk)suatu ketika dulu yang lebih kurang demikian: Kerajaan telah menurunkan cukai keatas pemain pita video (VCR player) dan berita itu di sebar dengan meluas. Lat memaparkan seorang ibu dengan anak lelakinya di sebuah rumah yang robek dan bocor bumbung nya. Selain dari periok belanga tiada barang barang mewah terdapat di rumah usang itu...Ibu bertanya pada anak nya "Nak, ada kah ini bermakna hidup kita akan lebih senang?"

Begitu lah hal nya dengan "kekayaan" negara kita sekarang. Siapa kah yang untung berjuta? Siapa kah yang bermaharajalela mengaup harta negara?

Tanya lah rakyat biasa, pekerja dan peniaga kecil: "Ada kah hidup anda lebih senang?"

A KADIR JASIN said...

Sdr chief shook,

Just weeks before the fall of China and NY markets, I read in the Economist that Dow was ripe for a 10 to 20-per cent correction.

Thank you for giving us perspective of the underlying events affecting the global stock markets.

The sad reality is, the teachers,doctors,engineers and other "good times" investors tend to enter the market at the peak and mutual funds are most aggresive during such times because it's easy to sell the units and in the case of local funds, they are often "forced" to enter the market at such times to prop up prices.

Sdr Fudzail and Sdr Rasidin,

There's the thing about NZ. It grows on you. I showed your comments to my Kiwi bapa's and emak's angkat. They were delighted.

NZ must have done something right for the two of you that you're now global professionals. Tahniah.

What our pembesar must bear in mind is that there are many Malaysians today who are globally mobile. If things are not good in Malaysia or are not up to their expectation, they can and will leave the country.

Also because of our political system, more and more businessmen and women are forced to leave the country. These are people who are not identified with those in power or are labelled as supporters of past leaders.

Sdr Sitamaya, ulasan anda cukup bernas. Manipulasi perangkaan akan hanya menjahanamkan ekonomi kita dan menyebabkan pelabur dalam dan luar negara hilang keyakinan.

Kalau tak salah saya, kajian masih dijalankan bagi mengulang kaji komposisi bakul yang digunakan untuk mengira indeks petunjuk harga pengguna.

Terima kasih kepada semua.

Ari said...

Hello,
I really doesn't know much about economy but your article and comments from members do give me and insight of whats happening. Anyway stock market is not my cup of tea.Had seen so many burn their fingers and some even have their back side burn, thats alone enough to drive me away into safer teritory - a teritory thats I know better.

Roshatika said...

A'kum Dato' AKJ,

Salam perkenalan Dato', Sebenarnya saya telah lama mengikuti tulisan Dato'tetapi baru hari ini saya mempunyai kekuatan untuk mengulasnya. Sebenarnya banyak juga tulisan-tulisan Dato' yang saya rasakan tidak tepat dan tidak membantu kerajaan memulihkan keadaan politik, ekonomi dan sebagainya. Di dalam artikel ini nampaknya Dato' tidak begitu suka dengan `hari-hari yang cerah kembali bertandang'. Dato' nampaknya tidak begitu gembira dengan pemulihan ekonomi yang nampaknya semakin baik. Saya rasa kita perlu realistik yang sebenarnya kita telah lalui zaman sukar diakhir-akhir pemerintahan TDM dan pada awal-awal pemerintahan AAB. Pada saya pemulihan adalah jelas, diawal pemerintahan AAB, IK berada disekitar 700-800 mata sahaja berbanding sekarang berlegar diantara 1000-1300 mata. Dato' juga berkata pada selasa 27hb. Feb 2007, IK jatuh dengan teruk. Bagi saya kita tidak boleh mengharapkan IK akan terus naik tanpa henti, ianya mestilah diselang-seli dengan pembetulan teknikal. Berkenaan kesan pemulihan pada peringkat bawahan pula saya rasa mungkin akan mengambil masa sedikit kerana pemulihan mesti bermula daripada atas dan kemudiannya akan dirasai peringkat bawah.

TQ

fendy_ahmad said...

Saya selalu terfikir..

Siapakah yg bertanggung jawab mengawal selia 'pengurusan sentimen' dan 'pengurusan isu' kepada Perdana Menteri ketika ini....

Hairan sungguh apabila kelihatan bahawa pihak Perdana Menteri seolah-olah tergesa-gesa dalam mengeluarkan kenyataan tentang 'kehebatan ekonomi' negara.

Seterusnya, TPM dengan terpaksanya telah 'MENEGASKAN' bahawa semua data dan pengumuman PM adalah benar dan bukan rekaan... Ini jelas menunjukkan bahawa kerajaan SEDAR bahawa banyak rakyat meragui dan menempelak apa yang dikatakan mereka.....

Apa sudah jadi?

Pengurusan SENTIMEN dan ISU amat penting bagi SEORANG PERDANA MENTERI....... Pak Lah wajar mengambil berat perkara ini ;)

A KADIR JASIN said...

Sdr Roshatika, antara lain, mengulans:

"Pada saya pemulihan adalah jelas, diawal pemerintahan AAB.IK berada disekitar 700-800 mata sahaja berbanding sekarang berlegar diantara 1000-1300 mata. Dato' juga berkata pada selasa 27hb. Feb 2007, IK jatuh dengan teruk. Bagi saya kita tidak boleh mengharapkan IK akan terus naik tanpa henti, ianya mestilah diselang-seli dengan pembetulan teknikal."

1. Saya tidak menafikan bahawa DS AAB menerus dan memantapkan pemulihan ekonomi negara;

2.Saya tidak menafikan pemulihan dan kenaikan besar Bursa Malaysia sejak penghujung 2006. Bagaimanapun kita perlu akui bahawa Bursa Malaysia tertinggal jauh di belakang selama lebih tiga tahun.

3. Saya sedar bahawa pembetulan pasaran atau market correction adalah perkara biasa. Tetapi manakala pasaran New York dan China mengalami correction selepas melalui tempoh kenaikan harga yang lama, Bursa Malaysia menderita correction setalah mengalami kenaikan baru beberapa bulan sahaja.

4.Saya tidak kata tiada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Yang saya kata rakyat dan pemerintah perlu dalami ialah aspek-aspek mikronya seperti inflasi, pengagihan kekayaan, gunatenaga, pengangguran, produktivi dan keyakinan pelabur.

5.Saya sekadar bertanya apakah pembesar negara terlalu tergesa-gesa menisytiharkan yang masa gemilang kembali bertandang dan media massa arus perdana terlalu ghairah memutar-belitkannya sehingga menjadi indah khabar daripada rupa. Itu saja.

Sdr Fendy_Ahmad bertanya:

"Siapakah yg bertanggung jawab mengawal selia 'pengurusan sentimen' dan 'pengurusan isu' kepada Perdana Menteri ketika ini...."

Saya rasa PM tiada kekurangan pakar dan penasihat dalam hal ini --- daripada "budak-budak cerdik" (whiz-kids) Tingkat 4 kepada kawan-rakan di NSTP, TV3, Media Prima, Bernama, Biro Tatanegara, Pemikir Hadhari dan banyak lagi.

Ari said:

"Had seen so many burn their fingers and some even have their back side burn, thats alone enough to drive me away into safer teritory - a teritory thats I know better."

But Sdr Ari, stock market is important. It's there that companies raise much of their capital and benchmark their business performance.

And "wealth effect" generated by the stock market is important to the economy.

People who make a killing on the stock market are more likely to spend their money than a salary earner, a small trader and a pensioner. As they say, easy come easy go.

But if you are going to borrow or sell your limited assets to "play" in the stock market, my advise is DON'T.

Terima kasih.

lamandau said...

I am waiting for 'those boys' to spin following the sharp drop in KLSE . What sort of excuses they would give. Datuk, bangkai gajah tak bisa ditutup dengan daundaun, lama2 terbau juga busuknya!
Any way Datuk, the drop in the KLSE market augurs well for those who manupulate it , especially those who subscribe to *mengakulah ekonomi negara kita dilandasan betul"

Anak Malaysia said...

Dear Datuk

As ordinary Malaysian, I do not know what to believe anymore. All the figures are contradicting each other.

People on the street are suffering by the day due to increased living costs. Thousands of graduates are unemployed.

Unless all the fantastic figures trickle down to ordinary people on the street, they mean nothing.

Thank you

Anak Malaysia

Malayu Hadhari said...

"Menteri Kewangan Kedua, Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop, dipetik oleh akhbar kewangan The Edge sebagai berkata asas (fundamental) ekonomi Malaysia tetap teguh dan kejatuhan harga di Bursa Malaysia tidak akan mencetuskan krisis kecairan (mata wang)" - Baguslah NMY cakap begini. Krisis Kecairan walaupun bukan lah persoalan yang besar tetapi ianya penting. Maksud saya, sekiranya 'fundamentals' kuat, mengapakah saya lihat kita tidak mampu bersaing walaupun dengan negara jiran yang dekat?

"Begitu juga dengan produktiviti. Walaupun produktiviti kasar meningkat, namun ia tidak menyeluruh...Sebaliknya penarikan balik atau pengurangan subsidi telah mencetuskan kenaikan harga barangan dan perkhidmatan yang sekali gus “memiskinkan” lagi golongan berpendapatan rendah" -adakah ini hujah 'zero sum' Produktiviti dan subsidi. Kalau kita 'efficient', adakah kita perlu gantung harapan pada subsidi?

"Persepsi ini diburukkan lagi oleh perkembangan semasa seperti pembatalan cadangan memperluaskan skim bantuan buku teks atas alasan ia memerlukan perbelanjaan tambahan, laporan berkaitan pengangguran siswazah dan kemuflisan kontraktor Kelas F" - Main-main persepsi ini macam permainan silap mata. Apa realiti nya? kontraktor Kelas F ini Datk pun sedia maklum eritanya, say tahu. (Ada cerita lebih dari satu keluarga kontrktor yang ada lebih dari satu lesen F, betulkah begitu, Datuk?)

" Thanks to this mundane assignment I fell in love with printer’s ink" - Ingatkan tadi jatuh cinta dengan anak taukeh :)

Saya mahu tahu apa pendapat, Datuk, sekiranya kita bandingkan prestasi ekonomi negara kita dengan Iran. Adakah kita segagah orang Iran yang pada hemat saya sangat ketabahan dan mempunyai semangat juang yang tinggi?

MokhtarDahariChinAunSantokh said...

A little bit of old news:

February 28, 2007

The Shanghai Crash
Take the Money and Run
By CHINA HAND

Take the money and run. That's what appears to have been behind the crash of the Shanghai stock market on February 27.

In early February, Time did a good job of describing the liquidity-fueled stock bubble in China, which looked just like the last stock market bubble in China, and the one before that.

Last year 2.4 million investors began trading stocks through the Shanghai exchange, a 250% increase in new accounts. That's an average of about 7,000 a day, a flood of fresh blood from san hu (as the Chinese call small investors) that is making seasoned traders nervous. "When you see shop assistants and taxi drivers racing out to borrow money to buy stocks, you've got trouble," says commodities guru Jim Rogers. "That's the market sucking in a whole lot of neophytes priming to get slaughtered."

When that article was written, the average P/E ratio on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 45, compared to 18 for the NYSE.

And it had gone up since then, with the index crossing the 3000 mark and setting a new record on the first trading day after Chinese New Years'.

To my mind, there are only two kinds of people who continue to pour money into an overvalued market like this: cretins and criminals.

The cretins never know when to stop.

The criminals, on the other hand, know when a good thing is about to come to an end.

Some observers apparently thought that the rumor of an impending capital gains tax was enough to end the party.

I tend to attribute the crash to reports of an impending government crackdown against illegal bank loans i.e. bank loans taken out for ostensibly for business and capital construction purchases but diverted to stock market speculation.

This is probably as close to a smoking gun as we'll get, from China Daily on January 30:

China's banking regulators have banned commercial banks from giving loans for stock investment and to investigate and call in all loans suspected of being used for such investment.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) would dispatch officials to examine loans at all commercial banks after the Spring Festival, which will fall on February 18, said an official with the China Banking Regulatory Commission, who declined to identified.

A crackdown right after Chinese New Year.

Just when the market crashed.

How about that.

The first thing the banks do when they hear about a possible audit is to try to call in suspicious loans and clean up their books; and that would be the signal for the speculators to realize their gains and get out of the market.

As to why the loss of 8% in market capitalization on a highly speculative bourse with minimal foreign exposure would give the New York Stock market the heebie-jeebies: it would be a dismaying indication of the tangential bad news that U.S. traders were looking for to confirm their own pessimism.

If I were in the U.S. markets, I would worry less about a much-needed $100 billion correction in Shanghai, than I would about the absolutely catastrophic news that the OMB was correcting its growth estimate for fourth quarter 2006 U.S. GDP from a heartening 3.5% to a dismal 2%.

That's an overestimate of 75%, representing a contraction in anticipated GDP of perhaps $50 billion for the quarter, with a commensurate reduction in profits translating into a shrink in market capitalization of perhaps $200 billion based on real world-as opposed to speculative-valuation.

And it's a sign that the U.S. is continuing to plod into a recession instead of pulling out of one.

For China, on the other hand, the crash is good news for everyone except, inevitably, its mismanaged banks, which have probably accumulated a fresh inventory of funny paper for their bad debt portfolios.

Fewer loans are written, macro control of the runaway economy is strengthened, inflationary pressures are reduced, the hemorrhaging of money from productive to speculative endeavors is staunched, and taxi drivers and shop assistants learn a salutary lesson about the risks of capitalism.

The big money players, I suspect, didn't get skinned.

They took the money and ran-away from the stock market and back to the bond market and banking system.

That's something I suspect doesn't bother the government one bit.

China Hand edits the very interesting website China Matters.

A KADIR JASIN said...

Sdr Melayu Hadhari berkata:

"Saya mahu tahu apa pendapat, Datuk, sekiranya kita bandingkan prestasi ekonomi negara kita dengan Iran. Adakah kita segagah orang Iran yang pada hemat saya sangat ketabahan dan mempunyai semangat juang yang tinggi?"

Ekonomi kita lebih maju dan kukuh daripada Iran. Bagaimanapun kadar pertumbuhan sebenar ekonomi Iran lebih tinggi -- kira-kira 6 peratus -- dan rizab minyak dan gasnya antara yang terbesar di dunia.

Iran memerlukan persenjataan yang kuat untuk melindungi kekayaan minyaknya dan Amerika mahu "menguasai" minyak supaya ia boleh terus menguasai ekonomi dunia, khasnya menyekat kemaraan ekonomi Negeri China yang kini bergantung besar kepada bekalan minyak dari Iran.

antibelit04 said...

Salam.

Sebenarnya...tanyalah penganalisa pasaran mana2 pun (jangan lah tanya bagi tau nak masuk TV)...hampir kesemuanya akan kata bahawa pasaran dah maksimum pada angka 1200 mata sebelum raya cina hari tu. Masa tu memang dah start nak jual. Spekulator dah tunggu masa tersebut. Saya masih ingat...media melaporkan pelabur runcit masih belum giat sepenuhnya. So bila mereka beli lepas raya cina...mereka jadi mangsa.

Kalau kerajaan bertangunggjawab..paklah nasihatkan pelabur supaya melabur dgn bijak iaitu membeli saham2 yg kuat asasnya. Tetapi p.lah pula mendongdang sayangkan bahawa pasaran boleh capai 1350 mata...tak ke naya tu?...orang baca sebagai satu galakkan sebab semua orang tahu peranan kwsp dan PNB sebagai key player untuk push market bagi pihak kerajaan....

Satu lagi datuk...saya tak selesa dgn kenaikan gaji sektor kerajaan. Sebabnya kebanyakkn sektor swasta tak berubah pun malah suasananya makin lesu. Dulu ya..15 tahun dulu..tapi sekarang gaji sektor swasta tak banyak mana pun. Dgn kenaikan gaji ini...kami yg kerja disektor swasta terpaksa menampung satu lagi pusingan kenaikan barang.

Boleh datuk ceritakan..bagaimana produktiviti kakitangan kerajaan diukur?..untung??...kuantiti pengeluaran???..kami yg jadi mangsa tukk...

fendy_ahmad said...

Di sini saya merasakan bahawa kerajaan TELAH GAGAL dalam peranannya sebagai PENSTABIL EKONOMI RAKYAT....

Kenaikan gaji tidak akan membawa erti andai NAIK GAJI = NAIK HARGA.
Biarlah gaji di takat yg sama tetapi bebanan PERBELANJAAN asas RAKYAT dapat dikurangkan (setidaknya adalah tidak meningkat)...

Segala 'pemberontakan senyap' yang berlaku di kalangan RAKYAT masa kini adalah daripada KETIDAKBIJAKSAAN pihak PEMERINTAH yang memberi laluan kepada kenaikan produk/perkihidmatan asas RAKYAT seperti elektrik,air,simen,tol dan seumpamanya....

Saya kira pentadbir perlu diajar tentang konsep KESAN BERANTAI kenaikan produk/perkhidmatan tertentu.....

Satu lagi persoalan timbul.....

ADAKAH KATA KATA YANG KELUAR DARIPADA MULUT TUAN PERDANA MENTERI tentang indeks komposit yg dijangka mampu meningkat kepada 1350 mata itu LANGSUNG TIDAK MEMBAWA SENTIMEN POSITIF?

ADAKAH PAK LAH hilang 'sentimen ajaib' buah mulut seorang Perdana Menteri sepertimana 'sentimen ajaib' yang selalu mengiringi buah mulut Perdana Mneteri sebelumnya?

Harap Datuk boleh hurai lagi tentang 'SENTIMEN AJAIB' daripada buah mulut seorang Perdana Mneteri terhadap keadaan pasaran saham dan iklim ekonomi negara...

budaklipis said...

Dera Dato',
Harap2 selepas market crash ni, tak ada la lagi bank tempatan kita tumbang macam yg lepas2.. Dan tak ada la dengar taikun2 kinta kena gi mahkamah.

Gaji org kerajaan naik - pasal dekat2 jauh lagi mengundi.. Kalau terlampau dekat nanti terperasan pula.

Anak Gajah said...

Dear Dato,

What UNCTAD said:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Malaysia dipped to US$3.97 billion in 2005 from US$4.62 billion in 2004

What MITI said:
FDI to Malaysia has recorded an increase in 2006, as shown below:


Approved
FDI in
manufacturing
2005 US3.5 billion 2006 US5.7 billion

Domestic
investments
2005 US3.7billion
2006 US7.4billion

Total
2005 US7.2billion
2006 US13.1billion


Issue:
FDI figures given by MITI does not tally with UNCTAD figures

Explanation:
1. UNCTAD uses Balance of Payment data as indicator of FDI into Malaysia. Briefly, this is the amount of actual foreign money that came into Malaysia for 2006. This indicator also does not include domestic investments, as shown in the figures provided by MITI.
2. MITI uses approval figures. In MITI’s method, foreign investors that are interested to invest in Malaysia will submit papers to MITI to seek approval to invest. In this application, they will indicate how much money they are planning to invest in Malaysia. This does not mean that they will bring the money in one lump sum. This money could be brought into Malaysia over a number of years. For instance, it is illogical for an investor to bring in US$1 billion in one go if it is investing in a petro-chemical project as this would be an on-going project. They will spend US$1 billion, but it will be spent over a period of time.
3. MITI’s method of calculating FDI has been used for years. The Government does not change the method of calculating FDI just to suit its agenda. It still announces FDIs figures, even when the number is down.

Now, is this spin.

guntingtajam said...

PM RESPONSIBLE FOR MARKET LOSSES?

Antibelit04 and DAP economic advisor Tony Pua accused Pak Lah of being responsible for the losses suffered in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) recently. Tony said Pak Lah had made a statement during the Chinese New Year that after hitting a 10-year high of 1,262.1 points during that week, the KLCI might breach the 1,350 mark – which would be the highest in Malaysia's history. antibelit04 and Tony claimed that Pak Lah had encouraged Malaysian retail investors to ‘push hard’ to achieve the KLCI high. Tony said the biggest losers have been the retail investors after this bullish encouragement from Pak Lah. Tony also said Pak Lah was "reckless and irresponsible" for making unqualified stock market predictions.

As you rightly pointed out Datok AKJ, depending on which perspective you take. To me,
1. The Prime Minister did not encourage retail investors to push hard for KLCI to reach 1,350-mark. This is a blatant lie by Tony Pua and the opposition, who would resort to lying to discredit the Prime Minister.

2. What the PM actually said at the Chinese New Year gathering on the stock market:
a. The Prime Minister said that the current good economic condition provides a perfect chance for Malaysia to grow. He said that the Bursa Malaysia composite index could surpass the 1,350-point level following positive indicators of the current economic growth in the country.
b. He said the government had succeeded in reducing the national deficit from 5.3 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 3.5 per cent last year, kept inflation under control and provided more job opportunities while maintaining unemployment at a low rate. He also said that the country has achieved a record in terms of trade last year with the volume exceeding the RM1 trillion mark while national reserves had also increased. The stock market index and the strengthening of the ringgit clearly showed people had confidence in the economy.
c. The Prime Minister was basing his statement on the stock market on good fundamentals of the country’s economy. This is neither a reckless or irresponsible statement.

3. The KLCI went down because of the following factors:
a. External factor: On 27 Feb 07, all Asian stock markets registered steep decline. China's shares declined the most in 10 years on concerns that the government will crack down on illegal investments that helped drive benchmarks to records. Analysts said the selling of stocks could be attributed to renewed concerns of a slowdown in the US economy, higher oil prices and mounting tension in the Middle East after Iran defied a UN deadline concerning its nuclear programme. The Malaysia stock market is very much affected by external factors such as this.
b. Analysts also noted that the stock markets such as China and Malaysia was ripe for a correction (to go down) after a steady increase and that did not reflect concerns about economic fundamentals.

syed syahrul zarizi said...

Sila lihat tajuk : Antara Fakta dan Spin Media

Media malaysia kini suka menyampaikan berita 'feel good' dan tidak menyampaikan apa yang sepatutnya rakyat mahu

Ya, media spin wujud dan memualkan.

A KADIR JASIN said...

Sdr Bukharimuslim,

Regrets, I don't know who "True Muslim" is.

Thank you.

Berita dari gunung said...

Spinning is quite a norm. I guess, newspaper has been doing it for decades. But it will be bad if over days, spinning turns out to be misleading.

zainal abas said...

BERGANTUNG kepada siapa dan daripada sudut mana ekonomi negara dinilai dan dianalisis

- bergantung kepada siapa samada dia pihak kerajaan dan pihak pembangkang..mmg begitu la stail mengkritik. datuk di pihak mana???

A KADIR JASIN said...

Sdr Zainal Abas menulis:

"BERGANTUNG kepada siapa dan daripada sudut mana ekonomi negara dinilai dan dianalisis

- bergantung kepada siapa samada dia pihak kerajaan dan pihak pembangkang..mmg begitu la stail mengkritik. datuk di pihak mana???"

Cuba kita fikirkan bersama. Mungkin ada berbezaan antara MENGKRITIK dengan MEMBUAT ULASAN YANG KRITIKAL.

Boleh jadi kita keliru sedikit dan justeru itu kita menyamakan antara MENGKRITIK dengan MEMBUAT KUPASAN YANG KRITIKAL.

A critical analysis is not necessary a criticism.

What I believe we are trying to achieve in this space is to subject issues and events to a critical analysis agar kita boleh memisahkan antara yang tersurat dengan yang tersirat.

Kalau fundamental ekonomi kita sekukuh yang didakwa dan bursa kita teguh, mengapakah pada 27 Februari dan beberapa hari berikutnya kejatuhan harga di Bursa Malaysia lebih teruk daripada pasaran saham serantau yang lain?

Terima kasih.

About Me

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I was born in 1947 in Kedah. I came from a rice farming family. I have been a journalist since 1969. I am the Editor-in-Chief of magazine publishing company, Berita Publishing Sdn Bhd. I was Group Editor NST Sdn Bhd and Group Editor-in-Chief of NSTP Bhd between 1988 and 2000. I write fortnightly column “Other Thots” in the Malaysian Business magazine, Kunta Kinte Original in Berita Harian and A Kadir Jasin Bercerita in Dewan Masyarakat. Books: Biar Putih Tulang (1998), Other Thots – Opinions & Observations 1992-2001 (2001), The Wings of an Eagle (2003), Mencari Dugalia Huso (2006), Damned That Thots (2006), Blogger (2006), PRU 2008-Rakyat Sahut Cabaran (2008), Komedi & Tragedi-Latest in Contemporary Malaysian Politics (2009) and Membangun Bangsa dengan Pena (2009).