Leadership Issue: When PM Sues

A Kadir Jasin

[NO anonymous comments will be published.  Please use Google Account, OpenID or Name/URL. Pseudonym is accepted. Thank you]

AS we all know, the Prime Minister, Mohd Najib Abdul Razak had send legal notices to Pakatan Rakyat’s Members of Parliament Tony Pua Kiam Wee of the DAP and Rafizi Ramli of the PKR.

I had not wanted to comment on his action simply because I find politicians suing each other as infantile. But when the former PM, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad, commented that he never had to resort to legal action against his critics when he was in power for 22 years, I am compelled to put things in perspective.

Dr Mahathir said he would simply answer to the people whenever an issue arose. Damn him or praise him, he is in his own class. It is simply inappropriate to compare Mohd Najib to Dr Mahathir.

I believe that politicians, especially the elected ones should use the Parliament and State Legislative Assemblies to sort things out and to convince the people. They should debate and banter with the people as judges.

As elected representatives they make laws. They are their custodians. The courts merely interpret the laws they made. By resorting to the courts, the politicians are admitting that they can no longer defend themselves politically. They admit that they have lost the debate and can no longer rely on their wits and wisdom to survive.

Furthermore, in our country threats of legal actions are an effective way of shutting up opponents when nothing else works. Many such actions were abandoned or settled out of court when the threats are over. 

Phua Causes PM Stress

On Nov 24, Mohd Najib issued a letter of demand in which he accused Pua of making defamatory remarks against him on November 3 in relations to the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB). The PM alleged that Pua had caused him “tremendous stress and embarrassment.”

Tun Razak Exchange: 1MDB's connerstone project

Mohd Najib demanded that Petaling Jaya Utara MP publishes a retraction and apologise within 14 days in two national newspapers or face legal action for his speech recorded in a November 3 video entitled “Tony Pua: Najib is creating the biggest scandal ever in the history of Malaysia” in reference to 1MDB.

Then in early December Mohd Najib sent a similar letter through the same legal firm to Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s vice president and MP for Pandan, Rafizi Ramli, accusing him of making defamatory remarks on the removal of fuel subsidies.

Rafizi in a statement on Dec 4 said he received the letter from law firm Hafarizam Wan & Aisha Mubarak demanding an explanation for his speech “Kenapa Kita Pertahan Subsidi Minyak” (Why We Defend the Fuel Subsidy) on Nov 22.

Rafizi welcome PM's legal action

Both 1MDB and the abolition of petroleum subsidy are hot potatoes for the PM. 1MDB recently reported a loss of RM665.4 million for the year ending March 31, 2014. It has assets worth RM51.4 billion and liabilities (mostly debts) of RM48.9 billion. The total abolition of petroleum subsidy was to take advantage of the lower crude oil prices and also to dress up the book so that the target of reducing budget deficit this year to 3.5% of the GDP could be achieved.

Young vs Old

When you are a young and upcoming politician like Rafizi, being threatened with a sued by the PM gives you bragging right.

“I am proud to be sued by a prime minister, for defending the rights of the public to receive fuel subsidy of at least 30 sen per litre,” Rafizi said in a statement.

“[This is] amid the situation where the country’s leaders spend public funds nonchalantly in projects that burden the people such as 1MDB,” he added.

Like Mohd Najib, Rafizi too was educated in the UK. He graduated from the University of Leeds in Electrical and Electronic Engineering, passed the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales (ICAEW) examination and was admitted into the Malaysian Institute of Accountants (MIA) in 2003 and served Petronas from 2003 to 2009.

Like Mohd Najib and Rafizi, Phua too studied in the UK. He graduated from Keble College, Oxford University with a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics and served as a consultant at Andersen Consulting for two years and as business development manager with Aqua Works and Engineering Sdn Bhd. Altogether he has more than six years of experience in the information technology and e-business consulting industry.

Phua warned PM on 1MDB

I would like to think that Rafizi and Chua are more of a match to the “shooting star” of Umno and the government, Khairy Jamaluddin, than the PM. For background and reflection about KJ, read here.

Mohd Najib should be picking up fights with people of his age and stature. While Rafizi is 34 and Phua is 42, he is 61.

Him taking legal action against Phua and Rafizi reminded me of Anwar Ibrahim making a police report over the Ummi Hafilda letter back in 1997. The letter was considered a “surat layang” and a “fitnah” until Anwar, on the advice of his lawyers, made a police report. Overnight what was considered by many, including Dr Mahathir, as a “fitnah” became a legal document that eventually resulted in Anwar’s downfall.

Similarly, Mohd Najib’s legal action against Phua and Rafizi could turn out to be a double-edge sword.

And maybe too that Mohd Najib is giving his own twist to Charles de Gaulle’s oft-quoted saying “I have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the politicians.”

So he is taking his spat with the young PR leaders away from the political sphere and into the legal arena. He is joining the crowd of desperate Malaysian politicians who are using the law to muzzle their adversaries and, along the way, make some pocket money.

Mohd Najib had also sued the portal Malaysiakini over readers' comments it published.

If indeed “the ballot is stronger than the bullet” as Abraham Lincoln had said, then, by the same token, the ballot is stronger than the lawyers. As an elected leader, the PM would be wiser to trust the voters than the lawyers.

Wallahuaklam.

Isu Kepemimpinan: Cakap Benar Mengenai Ekonomi

A Kadir Jasin

[Komen “Anonymous” tidak akan disiarkan. Dalam blog kita ini, pembahas WAJIB ada nama. Nama samaran dan nama pena pun tak apa. Angka pun boleh. Guna nama sendiri macam saya lagilah bagus.]

DALAM siri isu kepemimpinan kali ini, marilah kita berbincang sedikit mengenai ekonomi semasa. Tajuk ini mungkin berat tetapi sangat afdal kepada kelangsungan (survival) negara kita.

Saya tidak menyalahkan pemerintah dan media massa kawalannya kerana menghebahkan berita baik dan menguar-uarkan prestasi ekonomi yang dikatakan baik sehingga mendapat pujian pemimpin dunia.

Saya akui bahawa angka kasar menunjukkan ekonomi kita sihat. Pertumbuhannya jika diukur daripada keluaran dalam negara kasar (KDNK/GDP) adalah memuaskan. 

Tetapi angka kasar boleh memesongkan. Misalnya, banyak rumah, kedai dan ruang pejabat didirikan. Pembinaan rumah, kedai dan pejabat yang banyak itu menyumbang kepada pertumbuhan KDNK.

Tauke simen, pasir dan keluli buat duit. Perunding dalam dan luar negara buat duit. Pekerja binaan Indonesia, Bangladesh, India dan Myanmar buat duit. Penjaja nasi lemak Melayu di bahu jalan pun buat duit.

Tetapi kita juga tahu dan lihat banyak rumah, kedai dan pejabat tidak dijual atau disewakan, tidak didiami dan digunakan. Ada yang ditenggelami lalang, ditumbuhi pokok jejawi atau roboh terus. Iklan untuk dijual dan disewa menyakitkan mata.

Inilah yang ahli ekonomi sebut sebagai pertumbuhan yang tidak berkualiti atau penyalahuntukan sumber (misallocation of resources). Bila rumah, kedai dan ruang pejabat tidak digunakan maka tidak berlakulah penokokan nilai (value added) dan kesan serapan (trickle down effect).

Kalau rumah dijual dan didiami, kedai disewa dan perniagaan dijalankan, pejabat dibuka dan kakitangan diambil barulah berlaku penokokan nilai dan kesan serapan.

Tidak salah Menteri Kewangan Kedua, Ahmad Husni Hazadlah, menyatakan keyakinan yang matlamat mengurangkan defisit belanjawan 2014 kepada 3.5% KDNK masih boleh dicapai walaupun harga minyak jatuh teruk. Begitu jugalah kenyataan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif CIMB, Tengku Zafrul Aziz bahawa asas ekonomi (economic fundamentals) negara terus kukuh dan Pengarah Eksekutif Institut Kajian Ekonomi Malaysia (MIER), Dr Zakariah Abdul Rashid melihat prospeks ekonomi sebagai bercampur (mixed).

Malangnya, bukan harga minyak mentah saja jatuh. Harga minyak kelapa sawit dan getah sudah lama merudum. Permintaan ke atas komponen elektronik masih kukuh. Tetapi dengan ekonomi dunia diramalkan beku tahun hadapan, permintaan mungkin tidak kekal.

Petronas telah pun mengurangkan perbelanjaan modal (capex) dan memberi amaran mungkin tidak boleh membayar dividen yang tinggi kepada kerajaan. Tetapi kalau dipaksa, Petronas akan tambah dividen dan  kurangkan lagi capex.

Kredibiliti Maklumat Rasmi

Soalnya, bolehkah kita percaya kepada dakwaan bahawa fundamental ekonomi kita kukuh apabila bukan saja harga komoditi utama kita jatuh malah kadar tukaran mata wang kita pun jatuh juga?

Sangat mengelirukan apabila Gabenor Bank Negara, Zeti Aktar Aziz, berkata bagus apabila nilai ringgit naik dan bagus juga apabila ia jatuh.

Harga saham dan jumlah dagangan di Bursa Malaysia semakin menurun. Prestasi syarikat-syarikat yang disenaraikan dengannya lebih banyak yang negatif daripada positif. Boleh kata majoriti melaporkan penurunan keuntungan.

Pada 1 Disember, kadar tukaran ringgit jatuh paling banyak dalam sehari sejak Krisis Kewangan Asia 1997-98 kepada RM3.4320 bagi satu dolar Amerika.

Pada 3 Disember, akhbar The Star (milik MCA dan mewakili sentimen masyarakat perniagaan Cina) menyiarkan analisis pendapatan suku ketiga tahun ini (Julai-September) bagi syarikat-syarikat Bursa Malaysia.

Ia mendapati hanya dua daripada lima sektor utama ekonomi meningkat. Automotif naik 18.2% dan perbankan 1.6%, tetapi perkhidmatan jatuh 58.5%, komoditi jatuh 37.7% dan minyak&Gas jatuh 29.3%. Perkhidmatan menyumbang lebih daripada 50% kepada kegiatan ekonomi negara.

Pada 4 Disember, akhbar yang sama menyiarkan analisis prestasi mata wang ringgit. Ia mendapati ringgit jatuh berbanding kebanyakan mata wang rakan perdagangan utama kita.

Ringgit jatuh 5.61% berbanding dolar Amerika, 5.58% berbanding dolar Hong Kong, 3.93% berbanding Baht, 2.93% berbanding Rupee, 2.44% berbanding dolar Taiwan dan 0.95% berbanding dolar Singapura. Duit kita naik berbanding Yen (9.40%), Euro (5.91%), dolar Australia (4.32%), pound Inggeris (2.31%) dan Rupiah (0.73%).

The Star juga meramalkan yang kelembapan eksport mungkin mengakibatkan Malaysia mengalami defisit kembar (twin deficit), iaitu defisit akaun semasa dan defisit perdagangan. Ia memetik ketua ahli ekonomi AllianceDBS (bank), Manokaran Mottain.

Lebih Baik Terus Terang

Banyak lagi fakta dan ramalan ekonomi yang menjurus ke arah keadaan yang sukar dan mencabar bagi ekonomi negara tahun ini dan tahun hadapan. Ekonomi Eropah diramalkan menguncup tahun hadapan. Ekonomi Australia sudah mula menurun. Hatta ekonomi China yang perkasa itu pun sudah mula dingin.

Jadi, bukankah lebih elok bagi kerajaan mengakui realiti semasa dan berterus terang kepada rakyat jelata. Lebih baik membuatkan mereka kurang gembira dengan menyatakan kebenaran daripada membuatkan mereka marah apabila malapetaka ekonomi melanda mereka.

Sama ada ekonomi kita akan mengalami krisis atau tidak tahun hadapan, satu hal. Itulah yang sedang diramalkan oleh pembangkang pusat.

Yang utama sekarang adalah berkongsi maklumat secara rasional dan terbuka dengan rakyat jelata. Bukan berdolak-dalik dengan mereka apatah lagi memesongkan mereka dengan berita-berita baik yang sengaja diada-adakan.

Rakyat tidak “bangang”. Mereka tahu “practical economy.” Mereka sudah rasa kenaikan harga akibat pemansuhan subsidi. Mereka tahu harga petrol turun, tapi harga diesel naik. Mereka rasa pelik. GST belum dilaksanakan, tetapi sudah ada barang yang naik harga kononnya kerana cukai baru itu.

Mereka tahu harga getah dan kelapa sawit merudum kerana mereka yang mengeluarkannya. Mereka tahu ringgit Malaysia tidak bernilai seperti dulu lagi kerana hari-hari mereka beli-belah sendiri. Jangan tunggu mereka marah. Terus teranglah dengan mereka. Jangan sekali-kali anggap mereka bangang, bodoh, dungu, tongong dan bahlul.

Wallahuaklam.

Mohd Najib Kecam Blogger Upahan Umno

A Kadir Jasin

[Komen “Anonymous” tidak akan disiarkan. Dalam blog kita ini, pembahas WAJIB ada nama. Nama samaran dan nama pena pun tak apa. Angka pun boleh. Guna nama sendiri macam saya lagilah bagus.]

PRESIDEN Umno, Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, semalam secara terbuka mendedahkan yang Umno mengupah blogger.

Inilah kali pertama seorang pemimpin atasan Umno dan kerajaan membuat pengakuan seperti itu.

Mohd Najib berkata, mereka ini makan gaji dengan Umno tetapi menyerang balik parti itu.

Kerana itu, beliau menyifatkan mereka sebagai bangang.

Merujuk kepada Naib Presiden Umno, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Mohd Najib berkata: “Saya setuju kata Datuk Zahid yang kata bloggers kita ni kadang-kadang tembak kita. Dalam istilah perang, friendly fire. Friendly fire is not friendly."

Tambah Mohd Najib lagi: “Bloggers kita ni cari makan dengan siapa? Pergilah tembak pembangkang. Itu cara kita nak menang dalam peperangan. Jangan perang sesama sendiri. Tak masuk akal. Bangang.” Beliau berucap dalam sesi penggulungan di Perhimpunan Agung Umno (PAU) di Pusat Dagangan Dunia Putra (PWTC) semalam. (Baca lanjut di sini)

Pendedahan dan herdikan Mohd Najib itu akan melemahkan lagi perang saraf Umno di alam siber. Tanpa pendedahan dan kecaman itu pun keberkesanan blogger Umno sudah dipersoalkan.

Seperkara lagi, kalau benar blogger-blogger upahan Umno itu berperang sesama sendiri dan menyerang pemimpin parti, ia adalah cerminan perpecahan dan ketidaktentuan dalam Umno sendiri.

Namun Mohd Najib bukan orang pertama mencemuh dan melabelkan blogger.

Zainuddin Maidin (kini seorang blogger) ketika menjadi Menteri Penerangan melabelkan blogger “goblok”, Khairy Jamaluddin menanggil mereka “beruk” dan Shaziman Abu Mansor, waktu menjadi Timbalan Menteri Tenaga, Komunikasi dan Air, menyifatkan sesetengah blogger dan pengulas blog sebagai penembak curi.

Maaf cakaplah kalau saya katakan istilah “bangang” yang Mohd Najib gunakan itu adalah keterlaluan, kesat, kasar dan tidak membayangkan hemah dan ketokohan seorang pemimpin.

Pusat Rujukan Bahasa Melayu DBP mentakrifkan bangang sebagai bodoh, dungu, tongong dan bahlul. Teruk sungguh.

Kesian juga saya kalau selepas ini ada blogger Umno yang tertiarap periuk nasinya akibat herdikan Mohd Najib itu.

Wallahuaklam.

Mohd Najib Playing the Malay Warrior Role

A Kadir Jasin

[NO anonymous comments will be published.  Please use Google Account, OpenID or Name/URL. Pseudonym is accepted. Thank you]

MOHD Najib Abdul Razak may not be the savviest of Malaysian Prime Ministers, but he is experience enough to know that this is the time to pacify the angry Malays.

He has to stop them from prying open his Pandora’s box and against scheming for his overthrow.

So it’s not at all surprising that he made an about turn on his promise to repeal the Sedition Act (SA) and promising to “perkasakan” (empower) the Malays. With last year’s “Tsunami Cina” showing no signs of letting up, Mohd Najib needs the Malays even more.

Sacrificing his popularity with the non-Malay members of his Barisan Nasional coalition and incurring the ire of the liberal elite are a risk worth taking if the reward is ensuring his survival as Umno President and Prime Minister – at least until the next general elections.

Playing the Malay Pahlawan Role

He must have been sufficiently convinced that his popularity with Umno members in particular and the conservative Malays in general is declining and the challenges against his leadership could very well be real.

Damn me if you wish, but on this, I am with Mohd Najib. I have never been in favour of Mohd Najib’s decision to repeal of the Internal Security Act (ISA) and the Emergency Ordinance (EO). The furthest I would go is to amend them to be in tune with time.

After an about-face on SA, Mohd Najib might very well be stronger as Umno President, but the BN could lose more support among the non-Malays and the liberal elite.

In making the decision, he was addressing himself almost exclusively to Umno. He said he made the decision because he listened to Wanita and Youth movements and to the Deputy President (Muhyiddin Mohd Yassin).

Shifting Responsibility

It was a clever move. By shifting part of the blame to Muhyiddin, who has spoken about the dangers of repealing the act, he is lessening his own burden of responsibility.

This is the price Mohd Najib is paying for behaving more like a president than prime minister. He would not have been in this mess had he consulted Umno and party elders before repealing the ISA and the EO, and announcing plan to do the same with SA.

The silent majority among the Malays was against the repeal of the ISA and the EO. The repeal of the former lessened government’s ability to act against terrorism and the latter unleashed thousands of criminals and bad hats on the society with bloody outcome.

Would he become anymore popular with the non-Malays liberal elite and the WOG (western-oriented gentlemen) by repealing the ISA and the EO?

The 2013 GE results showed the opposite. These people were against the government not so much because of ISA, EO and SA but because of the opulence, extravagance, power abuse and corruption of the ruling elite.

Instead he offended the Malays of his own party. His promise to repeat SA only made things worse. On the other hand, the non-Malays and the liberal elite did not help Mohd Najib’s dream of a moderate Malaysia when they started questioning and insulting the Malays and their institutions relentlessly in the social media.

Now members of his party may be temporarily relieved. However, they should be warned not to swallow their President’s promises hook, line and sinker. He may yet do another volte-face.

Hail to the Chief

The oppositions and their liberal supporters are understandably upset. But I think they should be thankful to Mohd Najib for giving them more bullets. His about-face on SA is a bonus to them.

Price of Exuberance

Since taking over the country in 2009, Mohd Najib had clearly misunderstood and miscalculated the mood of the people, including members of his won party.

He is driven by exuberance more than understanding. His is blinded by his transformation zeal and he lives in a make believe world created by his family members, advisers, special officers and consultants.

These are people who, like Mary Antoinette over 200 years ago responded, “let them eat cake” when she was told that the French people had no bread to eat.

Yes Mohd Najib is the Prime Minister for all. Nobody is denying that. But to ignore or be seen to ignore the interest of the Malays and other Bumiputeras, who form the majority of the rakyat jelata (the masses), is foolish.

For now, Mohd Najib’s position in Umno is unchallenged. The Umno masses have been temporarily pacified and his likely opponents disarmed.

But the BN’s popularity with the non-Malays and the liberal elite might have taken another tumble.

Mohd Najib is still staring at the Ides of March less than four years from now when the GE has to be held. On the Ides of March, Julius Caesar was stabbed in the back by his dear friend, Brutus.

Wallahuaklam.

Presiden Umno Tanya: Di Mana Silap Kita?

A Kadir Jasin

[Komen “Anonymous” tidak akan disiarkan. Dalam blog kita ini, pembahas WAJIB ada nama. Nama samaran dan nama pena pun tak apa. Angka pun boleh. Guna nama sendiri macam saya lagilah bagus.]

MUTAKHIR – “"Saya mendengar pendapat dan cadangan daripada timbalan perdana menteri, Wanita, Pemuda, dan Puteri serta usul daripada bahagian dan keresahan serta pandangan NGO. Maka saya sebagai perdana menteri memutuskan yang Akta Hasutan 1948 dikekalkan." – Mohd Najib ketita merasmikan PAU di PWTC hari ini (27 Nov).

(Pengumuman itu adalah pusingan-U kepada ikrar beliau memansuhkan akta berkenaan dan menggantikannya dengan Akta Keharmonian Nasional.)

Posting Asal

MENJELANG Perhimpunan Agung Umno (PAU), banyaklah kenyataan, ikrar dan janji dibuat. Amat menakjubkan apabila Presiden Umno sendiri masih tertanya-tanya "di mana silap kita?"

Berikut adalah antara petikan menarik daripada pembesar Umno dan penyokong serta pelindung mereka untuk renungan bersama.

1. "Saya rasa sangat letih dan ia sangat memalukan apabila kita (BN) disebut sebagai pembangkang. Saya tahu anda semua rasa letih dan malu juga.” – Mohd Najib dalam ucapan di Konvensyen Umno Selangor, 1 Nov.

2. “Ramai rakyat Selangor bosan tetapi kalau mereka tak yakin lagi kepada pembangkang, boleh atau tidak mereka memberi sokongan kepada kita? Ini persoalannya. Benar kita nampak rakyat bosan dan tak suka, tapi inilah masa dan ketikanya bagi kita memindahkan sokongan kepada UMNO dan BN.” - Mohd Najib dalam ucapan di Konvensyen Umno Selangor, 1 Nov.

3. “Saya berjumpa dengan Najib pada 18 November lalu kira-kira 20 hingga 30 minit, hanya saya dengan dia saja. Meskipun saya terbuka dengan menyatakan tidak ada halangan untuk tukar pucuk kepimpinan tetapi presiden Umno mahu saya pimpin Selangor sekali gus meneruskan mandat menjadi pengerusi perhubungan Umno negeri." – Noh Omar, 22 Nov.

4. “Over the last three general elections, support for Umno and Barisan Nasional in Johor has declined from 81 per cent in 2004 to 63 per cent in 2008 to 54 per cent last year. Johor needs to be a stronghold for Umno again as the party started here.” – Mohd Najib at the Johor Umno Convention, 15 Nov.

Mohd Najib tidak tahu di mana kesilapan Umno

“Di mana silap kita?” – Mohd Najib di Konvensyen Umno Wilayah Persekutuan, 24 Nov.

5. “Saya katakan kita sudah capai tahap agak kritikal, kalau perubahan atau pembaharuan tidak dilihat berlaku, bimbangnya kita boleh kalah. Isyarat itu sudah jelas di hadapan kita.” - Muhyiddin Mohd Yassin dalam wawancara eksklusif dengan Utusan Malaysia 22 Nov.

6. “Kalau kita lihat kadar urbanisasi, penghijrahan anak muda dari kawasan luar bandar ke bandar sudah mencecah 60 peratus dan trend ini akan berterusan. Mereka memerlukan seorang pemimpin atau barisan pemimpin yang memahami mereka dan yang dapat memperjuangkan mereka.” – Khairy Jamaluddin, selepas hadiri Persidangan Kepimpinan Mahasiswa Nasional 2014 (PEMANAS) 23 Nov.

7. “Ada benda yang boleh dibahaskan, tapi kalau boleh jangan sentuh isu sensitif. Kalau boleh jangan sakiti hati orang lain.” - Tengku Adnan Mansor, 23 Nov.

8. "Sesetengah pinjaman adalah dalam bentuk jangka panjang tapi kami percaya komitmen kewangan ini dapat dipenuhi. Kami juga dalam proses menambahkan dan mencairkan nilai aset yang kami ambil alih." - Pengerusi 1MDB Lodin Wok Kamaruddin, 18 Nov.

(Terbaru: Harta 1MDB RM51.4 bilion. Hutang 1MDB RM41.9 bilion. Tahun ini rugi RM665.36 juta.)

9. Latest: Whoever uses my name, I ask the offices and ministries not to approve it.”- Rosmah Mansor commenting on people using her name to get project at the annual Squad Sayang gathering in Kuala Lumpur. (The Star).

Wallahuaklam.

Leadership Issue: What If PR Takes Over?

A Kadir Jasin

[NO anonymous comments will be published.  Please use Google Account, OpenID or Name/URL. Pseudonym is accepted. Thank you]

WE continue our discussion on leadership issue. This time let us try to figure out what will happen to the country if the Umno-led Barisan Nasional loses the next general election.

Let me start by quoting passages from the comment from debater, Safiai Saad, in our last posting. He, among other things, said:

“We should ask ourselves how would the Malays be if Umno is no more the ruling party. No ruling party is expected to continue to eternity. Certainly all the so called affirmative policy will be changed to reflect the new mandate given by the rakyat.”

During the 2013 general election, the Rubicon had been crossed – the Barisan Nasional lost the popular votes. In a system where proportional representation is practised, the Pakatan Rakyat would have won the Dewan Rakyat by a simple majority.

The momentum against the grand old coalition appears to be continuing although the PR has its fair share of setbacks in the form of intra- and inter-party squabbles.

Thus there is little wonder that more and more people are asking what if the BN falls at the next GE less than four years from now? What would the PR do as the new government of the Federation of Malaysia?

The Fear Factor

The Bumiputeras, in particular the pro-BN Malays, fear that they would lose their rights and privileges and the minority Chinese would dominate the government in addition to the economy that they already control.

Fear factor is Umno’s last remaining weapon to keep the Malays on its side. Fear of the Chinese was one of the key reasons why the Malays returned to Umno’s fold thus giving its a bigger victory during last year’s GE.

Images of tens of thousands jubilant Chinese and Indian supporters of the opposition taking over towns in Johor during election rallies struck fear among the Malays and they rallied behind Umno.

If the PR could convince the Malays that it would be fair to them, the BN would be in deeper trouble. The situation in the PR-ruled Selangor and Penang is a fair indicator. Was there a Malay revolt in these states since the PR gained power in 2008?

Except for the BN-linked Malay business community, the rest of the Malays appear to have accepted the PR. In Penang, where the DAP leads, the remaining holdouts are not Malays but Indian Muslims.

The latter are more strident in their criticisms of the state government because they are largely traders. They are directly affected by policies and programmes of the state government.

Even BN state assembly members are lacklustre in their efforts to confront the PR in the state legislative assembly. Unless they exhibit a more spirited challenge, they are at risk of being seen as a weak and ineffectual opposition.

If the PR could convince the Malays that it would be fair to them, respect their rights and privileges and promise a better deal for them in the economy, it would almost certainly get to keep Selangor and Penang, and may even win other states and ultimately the country.

Pacifying and allaying the fears of Malays are a must because they are the majority and they control the key elements of the government – the civil service, the police and the military. No government can change these overnight.

Of cause the easiest way to be popular with the people is for the PR to blame its predecessor i.e the BN government for the hardship they suffer. It would probably do what it has all along been demanding – setting up a royal commission of inquiry - to investigate the former BN government.

There will be other quick fixes like reducing the price of petroleum products or, at least, halting its increases, applying screws on profiteering and increasing salaries of the civil servants and allowance of quasi government officers like mosque officials - as was done by the DAP in Penang in 2008.

This could be achieved by reducing wasteful expenditures, doing away with extravagance and reducing cost of government procurements through open tender.

The experience with BR1M and election giveaways show that poor Malays and Bumiputeras are easily pacified. This has been copied by the PR governments of Selangor and Penang.

Keeping BN Policies

It will be foolish and dangerous for the PR to do away with the existing policies and programmes. So the core policies and programmes pertaining to the economy and commerce are likely to remain, minus such hypes as transformation and high-income economy.

The new PR government would risk too much if it abandons the existing economic framework altogether although admittedly it has its own sets of economic advisers if it wants to chart a totally new direction. Some of their advisers were from the Umno-BN network.

The next the PR has to convince is the private sector. The businessmen, including those who gain massively from the Ummo-BN government, will shift their loyalty if they are fairly treated.

They will rally around the new government for safety and survival, and may even be willing to make concessions and re-negotiate contracts they obtained from the former BN government.

This should not be a huge problem because many tycoons and big time businessmen have already been befriending and cultivating the PR parties since the 2008 GE.

But should the PR chooses to be vengeful, it risks angering the Malays and losing their support. And this cannot be good as the Malays form the majority and they control the key elements of the government.

The biggest challenge to the PR is keeping peace among its ideologically incompatible members. The recent Selangor Menteri Besar crisis exposed the vulnerability of the PR to inter- and intra-party squabbles. PAS lost Kedah in the last GE due largely to factional rivalries.

Therefore, unless BN goes through a credible transformation and Umno is back in favour with the Malays, in particular the younger ones, the PR stands a fair chance of grabbing Putrajaya in the coming GE.

Wallahuaklam.

Perhimpunan Agung Umno: Hentikan Omong Kosong

A Kadir Jasin

[Komen “Anonymous” tidak akan disiarkan. Dalam blog kita ini, pembahas WAJIB ada nama. Nama samaran dan nama pena pun tak apa. Angka pun boleh. Guna nama sendiri macam saya lagilah bagus.]

DALAM dunia “spinning” atau mengolah maklumat menjadi propaganda, perkataan kalah tidak wujud.

Misalnya, walaupun Mohd Najib Abdul Razak gagal mendapat kemenangan besar dalam pilihan raya umum (PRU) pertama beliau sebagai Perdana Menteri tahun lalu namun sampai hari ini pun beliau tidak mengaku kesilapan strateginya.

Sehinggalah giliran Mohd Najib, semua Presiden Umno dan Perdana Menteri menang besar pada PRU pertama mereka. Dengan itu mereka mendapat mandat mutakhir dan tulen yang mengesahkan kedudukan mereka sebagai ketua politik nombor satu negara.

Mohd Najib marah dan enggan terima hakikat bahawa strategi beliau silap dan para penasihat pilihan raya beliau perlu disingkirkan.

Sebaliknya beliau menyalahkan pengundi Cina kerana menyebabkan Tsunami Cina dan mencanangkan hakikat Umno menang lebih banyak kerusi dalam Dewan Rakyat berbanding PRU 2008.

Sahabat baik Mohd Najib, Barrack Obama pun lebih kurang sama. Apabila Parti Demokrat kalah dalam pilihan raya separuh penggal pada 4 Nov lalu, beliau tidak berkata partinya kalah.

Sebaliknya beliau menyifatkan keputusan yang buruk itu sebagai  “shellacking”. Dalam slanga Amerika ia bererti kekalahan teruk. Katanya rakyat menolak Parti Demokrat kerana mereka tidak puas hati dengan ekonomi.

Schultz Pengerusi Parti Demokrat

Tetapi tidak seperti Mohd Najib yang mengetuai Umno dan Barisan Nasional, Obama tidak mengetuai partinya. Dalam sistem Amerika, jawatan Presiden dan ketua parti diasingkan. Ketua Parti Demokrat sekarang adalah wanita bernama Debbie Wasseman Schultz. Dalam Dewan Perwakilan (The House) pula, Demokrat diketuai oleh seorang wanita juga bernama Nancy Pelosi.

 

Pelosi Ketua Demokrat dalam Dewan Perwakilan

Dengan keputusan itu, Parti Demokrat hilang kawalan ke atas Dewan Perwakilan, tetapi mengekalkan Dewan Senat (The Senate). Kongres (Parlimen) Amerika mempunyai dua dewan – Dewan Perwakilan dan Dewan Senat.

Dan seperti mana-mana parti politik, Demokrat pun menjanjikan kajian menyeluruh mengapa ia kalah tahun ini dan 2010 serta mengapa kempen pilihan raya presiden berjaya, tetapi kempen pilihan raya separuh penggal gagal.

Umno/BN Buat Kajian?

Kembali ke tanah air kita, persoalannya adakah Perdana Menteri tahu punca sebenar beliau gagal dalam PRU tahun lalu dan apakah cara memperbaiki prestasi BN pada PRU akan datang?

Yang kita tahu, prestasi Mohd Najib lebih teruk daripada (Tun) Abdullah Ahmad Badawi pada PRU 2008 dan tidak terdapat tanda-tanda sahih yang Umno dan BN telah bertambah kuat. Malah Mohd Najib sendiri baru-baru ini merintih malu melihatkan ketidakberdayaan Umno Selangor yang beliau sendiri ketuai.

Malah yang menjadi persoalan adalah sama ada Mohd Najib masih ingat bahawa orang Melayu lah yang menyelamatkan beliau tahun lalu dan masih berterima kasih kepada mereka.

Kalau beliau masih ingat dan masih berterima kasih, beliau tentu akan menyatakan sesuatu yang penting seperti menarik balik cadangan beliau memansuhkan Akta Hasutan pada Perhimpunan Agung Umno (PAU) 25 hingga 29 Nov nanti.

Alhamdulillah, semakin ramai pemimpin Umno yang secara terbuka menolak cadangan sebelah pihak Mohd Najib memansuhkan Akta Hasutan. Timbul persoalan, adakah pandangan Umno diketepikan apabila Mohd Najib memansuhkan Akta Keselamatan Dalam Negeri (ISA) dan Ordinan Darurat pada tahun 2011.

Apakah ia adalah hasil cadangan dan desakan golongan liberal yang mengelilingi dan menasihati Perdana Menteri? Adakah suara Umno bukan lagi suara utama yang Mohd Najib dengari selain suara pengampu dan pemuji?

Kalau Mohd Najib masih mengutamakan parti beliau maka wajiblah beliau menggariskan kepada ahli Umno, khususnya dan orang Melayu, amnya pelan besar beliau bagi memperbaiki ekonomi mereka, menyempitkan jurang ekonomi antara Melayu dengan bukan Melayu dan mencari penyelesaian kepada persoalan tanah rizab yang diambil alih oleh kerajaan.

Adakah beliau tahu bahawa ada keluarga nelayan yang makan sajian utama (main meal) hanya sehari sekali dan hadiah paling istimewa mereka janjikan kepada anak-anak mereka kalau cemerlang dalam peperiksaan adalah makan di McDonald?

Tetapi kalau PAU kali ini – macam yang sebelumnya – hanya sekadar memuji, memuja, mengampu dan berlawak jenaka, kemungkinan Umno kalah dalam PRU akan datang adalah besar. Umno dan BN sudah pun ibarat telur di hujung tanduk.

PAU Bukan Untuk Tepuk Sorak Saja

Presiden Umno dan keseluruhan kepemimpinan parti itu perlu membuktikan sama ada rakyat jelata masih didahulukan dan pencapaian masih diutamakan.

Kalau itulah pendirian mereka maka mereka wajib gariskan pelan bertindak bagi mengatasi kemelut ekonomi Melayu/Bumiputera. Antaranya:-

1. Memperkuatkan ekonomi Melayu/Bumiputera selari dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi negara yang Mohd Najib uar-uarkan sebagai kukuh.

2. Mengatasi masalah kenaikan harga barang dan perkhidmatan akibat penarikan balik berperingkat subsidi petrol.

3. Mengatasi kemungkinan kenaikan harga barang dan perkhidmatan akibat pelaksanaan Cukai Barangan dan Perkhidmatan (GST) tahun hadapan.

4. Mengatasi masalah pengangguran di kalangan graduan Melayu/Bumiputera.

5. Mengatasi masalah diskriminasi majikan bukan Melayu terhadap calon Melayu/Bumiputera.

Ekonomi Melayu tidak pernah kuat. Sebaliknya, akibat kenaikan harga barangan pengguna dan perkhidmatan serta kejatuhan harga kelapa sawit dan getah, ekonomi mereka semakin lemah.

Ekonomi Melayu/Bumiputera mustahil boleh diperkukuhkan tanpa penyertaan keseluruhan ekonomi. Kemampuan kewangan kerajaan dan agensi-agensi ekonominya (GLC dan GLIC)  tidak cukup besar untuk tujuan itu.

Petunjuk Pembangunan Bank Dunia mendapati perbelanjaan kerajaan Malaysia bagi tahun 2013 menyumbangkan hanya 13.58% sahaja kepada Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (GDP).

Ertinya bagi setiap seringgit yang dijanakan oleh ekonomi Malaysia tidak sampai 14 sen disumbangkan oleh perbelanjaan kerajaan. Lagipun daripada jumlah itu bukan semua diperuntukkan kepada orang Melayu/Bumiputera. Ia adalah untuk semua rakyat Malaysia.

Tanpa penyertaan sektor swasta yang dikuasai orang Cina dan pelabur asing mustahil ekonomi Melayu/Bumiputera boleh diperkukuhkan. Ini adalah realiti kalau para pembesar dan perwakilan Umno faham ekonomi.

Semua pemilik modal, sama ada Melayu, Cina, India atau asing perlu digerakkan secara pujukan, galakan dan paksaan untuk berkongsi perniagaan dengan orang Melayu/Bumiputera serta mengambil dan melatih pekerja profesional dan teknikal Melayu/Bumiputera.

Umno wajib menggesa kerajaan supaya mengembalikan sesetengah unsur Akta Penyelarasan Perindustrian (ICA) yang telah dimansuhkan, khususnya mengenai guna tenaga.

PM wajib menyenaraikan, untuk pengetahuan umum, apakah kemajuan rancangan pemerkasaan ekonomi Bumiputera yang beliau hebah dan hebohkan di UiTM pada 14 Sept tahun lalu. (Baca di sini)

Beliau juga wajib membuat laporan kemajuan saranan guna tenaga sektor swasta yang merangkumi jantina, kaum dan usia yang beliau umumkan 10 April lalu. (Baca di sini).

Rasanya, Mohd Najib sebagai Perdana Menteri mengatasi semua pendahulunya (successors) dalam membuat slogan, janji, ikrar dan dasar, tetapi setakat ini, mungkin antara yang terkebelakang dalam menterjemahkannya menjadi realiti.

Mohd Najib terkenal dengan slogan “I hear you” (saya dengar anda). Atau apakah ini pun omong kosong juga? Kalau beliau benar-benar mendengar keluh-kesah ahli parti dan orang Melayu, beliau perlu berubah atau menghadapi risiko diubah atau parti kalah pada PRU akan datang.

Wallahuaklam.

Leadership Issue: The Jokowi Phenomena

A Kadir Jasin

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WHILE waiting for the Federal Court to decide  on Anwar Ibrahim’s sodomy appeal, which was initially due to last two days but had since been extended to at least five, let us continue the discussion on leadership.

What will happen to Anwar next week will have an impact on the leadership of our beloved country.

The first three articles in this series were in bahasa Malaysia labelled Isu Kepemimpinan. 

Anwar and some of his lawyers facing the media

A couple of news items published by local and international newspaper as well as the online media in recent days attracted my attention.

One report in The Star, which was a reproduction of a Jakarta Post story, was headlined “Indonesian First Family shuns excessive lifestyles, won’t parade wealth”.

The other, also about President Joko Widodo aka Jokowi, it picked up from The New York Times was headlined “Jokowi in global spotlight”.

President Jokowi and PM Mohd Najib

The third was Star’s report about the wife of the Prime Minister, Rosmah Mansor, wherein she theorised that she became the target of criticism after the critics failed to get at her husband.

The Star headlined, “Rosmah: Critics can’t get at Najib, so they target me”. (Read here).

And the fourth was about the Baling BN MP and Tabung Haji Chairman, Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim praising Rosmah’s Permata Programme, saying that it had attracted international acclaim.

Abdul Azeez said those against the programme and its patron, prime minister's wife Rosmah Mansor, do so after making "ill assumptions". He said even the Zambia president and queen of Qatar recognised the Permata's contributions. Permata is funded by the taxpayers.

Abdul Azeez Praised the PM's Wife

The Jokowi Phenomena
 
ABOUT the new Indonesian President, The Jakarta Post report, among other things, says while the children of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono might have no reservations about showing off their luxurious lifestyles, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s children are the opposite.

“Although they are far younger than the Yudhoyonos, there is no indication that they are fond of the latest Apple iPhone, Land Rover SUVs or high-end fashion, despite the fact that their parents can certainly afford such things.

“As a businessman, Gibran Rakabuming, Jokowi’s eldest child, could afford to take the path of luxurious living if he chooses to.

“But he opts to remain humble, driving a Mazda hatchback bought from the proceeds of his catering and wedding planning business in the family hometown of Surakarta, Central Java,” the reports reproduced from Jakarta Post says.

IN his previous life as a small-time furniture exporter and exhibitor, Joko Widodo was used to erecting stages. But in early November, just days after being sworn in as the president of Indonesia, he will be sharing a stage with the world’s most powerful leaders.
 
Stories about President Jokowi’s ordinariness, his distaste for opulence, his people-oriented politics and, above all, his abhorrence for corruption are abundant. So far much of superlatives used to describe him appear to be true.

Present at his inauguration in Jakarta on Oct. 20 were world and regional leaders including Mohd Najib Abdul Razak.

Rosmah Theorises About Criticism

SHE described the online “rumours” as malicious and said the public should not believe allegations that she controls her husband and that he is afraid of her.

"I am fully aware of the things said about me on social media. These people just want to topple the government but they can’t get at Najib. So, they get to me," reports The Star on Oct. 23.

"Don't believe and swallow everything you see or read online, such as on Facebook and blogs," Rosmah said at the launch of the national-level International Rural Women's Day celebration on Tuesday. (Read here)

I leave it entirely to readers to judge. As far as I am concerned, I have stated unequivocally that Rosmah is influential in my post entitled “Perdana Menteri Wanita: Mengapa Isteri PM Tak Boleh?” on Jan 16, 2011. (Read here).

Wives Of Past PMs

In the 45 years as a reporter, I came across the wives of all Malaysian Prime Ministers. Some I knew personally some I did not.

I knew the late Tun Sharifah Rodziah, the wife of Tunku Abdul Rahman Putra, because she served us tea at their Alor Star home while we waited for Tunku to wake up from his afternoon nap.

I got to know Tun Dr Siti Hasmah, the wife of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad in 1964 when Dr Mahathir came to contest that year’s general election in my village.

I knew Tun Endon aka Kak Endon, the wife of Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. She too served me tea when we were discussing a charity project at their Kuala Lumpur residence. Abdullah was then Deputy Prime Minister.

I did not know Tun Rahah, the wife of late Tun Abdul Razak Hussein and the late Tun Suhailah, the wife of the late Tun Hussein Onn. The two sisters were rarely seen in public and hardly heard from.

I know Rosmah for many years. Once or twice she graced event organised by Berita Publishing. On several occasions I was invited for private lunch at their Taman Duta residence.

So I dare say without reservation that Rosmah is influential and the effects of her involvement in the affairs of the state surpass those of the wives of past Prime Ministers.

This is not my conclusion solely. This is what is told to me by people closest to Mohd Najib, including people those who knew him and served him before he married Rosmah. As for me, being old and having been around for a while, I also know Mohd Najib’s former wife. Once or twice I visited him in Kuantan, when he was Menteri Besar.

Wallahuaklam.